David Stearns’ first job in pro baseball was as an intern in the summer of 2004, when he was 19, working in stadium operations for the Mets affiliate Brooklyn Cyclones.
Among the many tasks for the then short-season rookie league team, Stearns had to clean the toilets at what was then called KeySpan Park.
Stearns did not have much interaction back then with the person who ran the day-to-day endeavors of the team. His name?
Steve Cohen (no, not that one).
Stearns has come a long way in two decades, and yet has come full circle. He will again be employed by the organization for which he grew up rooting and again working for a guy named Steve Cohen (yep, that one), but only metaphorically — Met-aphorically? — will be cleaning the toilets oagain as he tries to take the Mets from the outhouse to the glistening baseball penthouse of Cohen’s vision.
Stearns arrives older, 38; richer, on a five-year contract that possibly makes him the highest-paid baseball operations executive in the majors; and wiser, after seven years running the Brewers’ baseball department. He has navigated from intern to in turn to be the latest executive to try to bring what has eluded the franchise for six-plus decades — sustained winning.
He was the main architect of a Brewers team that made the playoffs for four straight seasons (2018-21) after making it just four previous times in franchise history, since 1969. The Mets have not reached the postseason even three straight years in a lineage that dates from 1962.
Armed with the kind of largesse unavailable to him in Milwaukee, Stearns will try to marry the small-market ingenuity he mastered with the Brewers to the deep pockets of a financial juggernaut.
That could work ideally, as it did when Andrew Friedman left the Rays to run the Dodgers. And it can go badly, as it did when Chaim Bloom left the Rays to run the Red Sox, who fired Bloom last week in part because he failed to fully appreciate an urgency to win now even while he had been empowered with a main task of setting up the franchise for sustained long-term success.
How long the Bloom stays on the rose for Stearns in Flushing will be determined by whether he can walk that dual road better. Cohen has not hidden the fact he wants to build the Dodgers East — a machine that annually produces usefulness or much more from the farm system, backed by a wallet that can pursue any star when necessary. Emphasizing that big picture, Cohen has said he anticipates taking a step back in expectations for 2024, yet he does not want to punt on contention.
So how does Stearns walk both streets? He grew up on the Upper East Side rooting for the Wilpon Mets. But he now will work for Cohen, which means every door is open. So even in a year in which the plan is to step back, I still anticipate that for business reasons — both baseball and opening possibilities for his hedge fund in Japan — Cohen will attempt to find out whether Shohei Ohtani would actually play on the East Coast. If the Mets can sign Ohtani, they will have added the kind of power hitter that could make it easier to trade Pete Alonso prior to his 2024 walk year.
I also think the Mets are going to try to redirect big money to Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is going to evoke staggering bidding. He has won the Japanese version of the Cy Young Award each of the past two seasons while simultaneously earning MVP honors in both years. He might win both again in 2023. And, oh yeah, he only turned 25 last month.
Because of his age, Yamamoto fits the Mets’ short-term and long-term ambitions. That is true about every team, but not every club has Cohen’s willingness to spend, particularly on a pitcher who unlike, say, Blake Snell or Aaron Nola, cannot have the qualifying offer placed on him. Thus, there would be no draft-pick compensation.
A consolation prize for missing out on Yamamoto could be Shota Imanaga, a lefty who started the World Baseball Classic gold-medal game for Japan against the United States. He is going to be posted after the season. He just turned 30.
There have been previous instances in which a star Japanese pitcher did not want to sign where a countryman already was playing, to avoid comparisons and to forge a distinct path. So will the successful presence of Kodai Senga hurt the Mets’ chances with other Japanese starters?
It is one of the key issues Stearns will have to clarify rather quickly this offseason:
- Will Ohtani come to the Mets?
- Will current star Japanese star pitchers come to the Mets (standout lefty reliever Yuki Matsui also is expected to be available)?
- Will the Mets aggressively shop Alonso?
- Will Buck Showalter be back as manager?
For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume something close to status quo — Alonso and Showalter stay, but the Mets do not land Ohtani or either of the Japanese starting pitchers.
I think how Stearns constructs the club will have little to do with who the manager is anyway. Nevertheless, I have to imagine that as part of a negotiation with Cohen, Stearns gained the right to decide who the manager will be. I would suspect from talking to executives who know Stearns that Showalter is not his ideal fit, and the possibility of signing his Brewers manager, Craig Counsell, is part of the equation.
So what might convince Stearns to keep Showalter on the final year of his contract in 2024?
- Due to lingering COVID issues in 2022 and the WBC taking so many of his players in 2023 (and resulting in the injury that sidelined Edwin Diaz for the year), Showalter has yet to have a standard spring training as Mets manager.
- Stearns perceives he has so many other matters with which to deal that he will just keep a veteran manager in place, then make a judgment after next season. If the 2024 campaign goes poorly, it would provide Showalter as the fall guy and would allow Stearns greater familiarity with the Mets organization to try to find a match as manager.
- The 2024 Mets might fit Showalter better than the 2023 club. I have always felt he works best with a “nobody believed in us” group than the kind of expected overdog he had to begin this season.
As for Alonso, there is a difference of opinion in how far down the line the Mets were in trade conversations at the deadline. But Milwaukee perceived that it was talking seriously about prospects, and nobody is going to know those prospects better than Stearns with his Brewers background, if the sides want to rekindle talks for Alonso.
Stearns is not averse to hard decisions about key players. He had to do that for budgetary reasons with the Brewers. He might have that, even with Cohen, when it comes to Alonso. It is pretty clear that there has been no extension to date because there is a gulf between what the Mets are willing to offer a first baseman and Alonso’s belief that he is worth far more to the organization than just that.
Stearns is a return-on-investment trader, like most modern executives, including current Mets general manager Billy Eppler. When they calculate that the return is more than what they are giving up, they act. The Mets did not hear that at the deadline for Alonso. But remember, when it comes to Alonso, and especially all the Mets’ prospects, Stearns is going to arrive with no emotional attachment and with an outside view of their value. Therefore, he may be way more willing to trade an Alonso or a Brett Baty.
But again, let’s proceed as if Showalter will remain the manager, Alonso will be at first until at least the 2024 trade deadline (maybe they will try to find common extension ground again) and the Mets will need to add at least two and maybe three starting pitchers, solidify the position group and rebuild the pen:
Rotation: Senga and Jose Quintana are the returning starters. It is a fine duo for Senga’s upside and Quintana’s steadiness. It is possible Jose Butto’s changeup has edged him ahead of Tylor Megill and David Peterson on the depth chart, with a group that includes Dominic Hamel, Justin Jarvis, Christian Scott, Tyler Stuart and Mike Vasil perhaps becoming factors. But the Mets should add three starters from among the Japanese stars and regular free-agent options to make those unproven hurlers depth.
The most ideal, for me, would be actually landing Yamamoto, then using Cohen’s dollars to win one-year deals for Hyun-jin Ryu and Luis Severino that could help contention now without muddying up future payrolls. Starting pitching may be in such demand that even Ryu, who will turn 37 in March and missed most of the past two seasons after Tommy John surgery, and Severino, coming off his worst year and yet another injury (oblique), could draw more than one-year offers. Both Ryu and Severino have huge physical red flags, but that is why you keep the depth while trying to play the upside.
Ryu is unflappable, has a kitchen-sink array and knows how to use his repertoire. Severino still has stuff. I think he bulked up too much and put too much pressure on himself in a walk year and to prove himself again with the Yankees. He has change-of-scenery potential.
If a third addition were needed, the others who would interest me and reside in the short-term bucket due to age, injury, need to prove themselves again or all of the above would be, in order, Kenta Maeda, James Paxton and Tyler Mahle. I would call Boston to see if it is desperate enough to get out of the $27.5 million owed Chris Sale in 2024 to attach a prospect. Again, the Mets should be trying to play short-term upsides with risk while keeping all of their rotation depth for when the inevitable injuries strike (Sale has 10-and-5 rights and can block any trade).
Position group: Of the youngsters promoted this season, the only one who should have a sure job in 2024 is Francisco Alvarez, who has areas in which he must improve, but showed enough on offense and defense to see him as potentially an All-Star catcher.
The others (assuming they are not traded) — Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos — should be given paths to regular playing time, but have to earn it. The Mets’ third base production has been dreadful the past two seasons, worse even on defense than offense. They cannot stay defensively deficient in that area, but it is hard to fix. It would be ideal if Baty or Mauricio could emerge (I am disqualifying Vientos because I cannot see a path to his defense even becoming acceptable).
The Pirates’ Ke’Bryan Hayes is completing the second year of a seven-year, $80 million pact. He is fine on offense, superb on defense and will play at just 27 next year. Would the Pirates see upside potential in Baty as the basis to making a deal? The Rockies’ Ryan McMahon just completed the second year of a six-year, $70 million pact. He is strong defensively and has some pop, but his 30.3 strikeout percentage is a red flag.
To augment the group overall, the Mets should try to sign Justin Turner and Whit Merrifield, both of whom are likely to opt into free agency this offseason. Could Cohen pay enough to keep both to one-year deals?
Merrifield would give the Mets a righty Jeff McNeil: He can play second and the corner outfield, provide batting average and limit strikeouts, and Merrifield also can still steal a base. The versatility would allow the Mets to move them around and open playing time for Baty, Mauricio and Vientos, and eventually Luisangel Acuña, if they earn it in 2024.
Would Turner return to the Mets, the last place (2013) he was not an elite hitter? Even at 38, Turner remains a high-end professional, a clutch performer to stick at DH with the ability to move to first, second or third in a pinch as opposed to having the lack of versatility provided by current DH Daniel Vogelbach. Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor and Turner would provide a tough 1-2-3 in front of, presumably, Alonso.
Bullpen: Diaz returns, and Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley likely will be back. The Mets have to sort through a bunch of other arms. Drew Smith had the kind of year that gets a reliever non-tendered, but he has the kind of stuff profile that should have the Mets worried he may end up with the Rays or Dodgers and get his repertoire refined and maximized.
I can’t see Stearns going to the top of the market here for a reunion with Josh Hader or spending much at all, though a return of David Robertson for one year seems intriguing. That is where Stearns’ small-market craftiness is going to become a factor. Can he do a lot better than Eppler has the past two years finding helpful relievers on the margins?
That is what high-functioning organizations do. For example, multi-team castoffs Ryan Brasier and Shelby Miller have helped buoy a beat up Dodgers pitching staff with 63 combined games of a 1.43 ERA and a .121 batting average against. That is one of the ways Steans can begin to enact Cohen’s dream of finding talent in every way, like the Dodgers.