We are officially into the second half of the NBA season. This is the time of year where teams either make a push for the playoffs and for seeding or try to take a dive down the standings in hopes of a better pick in the upcoming draft.
We have four games in the association tonight and plenty of player props to sift through on PrizePicks. Keep in mind that these lines are constantly moving, given all of the injuries and rest in this day and age of the NBA.
After perusing the PrizePicks lobby, I have narrowed it down to my favorite four selections for tonight’s slate.
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Williams has been an efficient producer for the Hornets all season and is now getting a chance to start after Charlotte traded Mason Plumlee to the Clippers. On a per-minute basis, Williams has averaged 0.49 points and 0.37 rebounds this season. We have him projected to play around 29 minutes, which puts him in the range of 14 points and 10 rebounds. Based on that alone, the over on this prop stands out. The cherry on top is a matchup against the Pistons, who are 24th in rebounding rate and 27th in defensive efficiency against centers this season.
Hot streaks are real in the NBA, but they also come to an end eventually. Prior to the All-Star break, Brunson topped 25 points in eight of nine games. It was an incredible stretch, but wasn’t sustainable over the course of an entire season. In the two games since after the break, he has scored 20 and 13 points. He has averaged 23.9 points per game on the season, which is slightly below his prop for tonight. Most people would rather bet the over on props, but there can be a lot of value in betting the under. Brunson has a very difficult matchup tonight against Marcus Smart and the Celtics, who are fourth in defensive rating as a whole and fourth in defensive efficiency against point guards this season.
Embiid is one of the best players in the NBA and can have a big game against any opponent. With that said, I have my eye on the under on his point prop of 32.5 tonight. For starters, this projects to be an extremely slow-paced game. The Sixers and Heat are both in the bottom five in pace this season. Naturally, this means fewer possessions for both teams. Additionally, Bam Adebayo is one of the best low-post defenders in the league (Heat are first in defensive efficiency against centers this season). In the last 10 meetings between these talented players, Embiid has only topped 30 points twice.
It’s safe to say that I have never picked an over/under on turnovers, so I’m excited to see how my first one pans out. With Larry Nance and Zion Williamson out tonight, I knew that I wanted to take a hard look at the prop market for Valanciunas. In games that Nance has missed this season, Valanciunas has averaged 28.4 minutes. This is a big step up from the 24.1 minutes with Nance active. On the season, Valanciunas has averaged 2.24 turnovers per 28 minutes, so there appears to be some value on the over of 1.5 turnovers. It’s also worth noting that he has committed at least two turnovers in 16 of his last 24 games.
You can follow Derek Farnsworth on Twitter @RG_Notorious