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Jul 25, 2025  |  
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NextImg:Prediction markets forecast socialist landslide for NYC mayor race

Don’t look now, but it appears the controversial candidate is separating himself in the New York City mayoral race.

Democratic primary winner Zohran Mamdani is a massive favorite to triumph in the November election, being given a 72 percent chance at victory, according to prediction market Kalshi.

Kalshi, a CFTC-licensed derivative market that takes wagers on real-life events, is taking money on this election, with $12,917,756 already wagered on the market as of Thursday morning.

Mamdani, while favored, has seen his lead dwindle a bit.

He got as high as 94.8 percent in April, so there is some potential that a different candidate could close the gap.

Mayor Eric Adams potentially could be replaced in the upcoming election. James Messerschmidt

Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo — whom Mamdani defeated in the democratic primary — has a growing chance, according to the money market.

He is at 15 percent, significantly higher than the less than two percent chance he had in May.

Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams has remained steady with a nine percent chance of victory come November.

The Post’s front page from July 16, 2025. rfaraino
NYC Mayor Race Winner market shown on Kalshi. Kzlshi

Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa is an afterthought, with his odds coming in at just three percent.

There had been rumors that Silwa would drop out of the race and one of Cuomo or Adams would take over the republican bid to be the NYC Mayor, but that hasn’t happened as the election nears.

Democratic socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani, who won the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City. Getty Images
Andrew Cuomo speaking into a microphone. John Roca for NY Post

The election is scheduled for Nov. 4, and around that time bets will be paid out on Kalshi, which is available in all 50 states.

A $10 bet on Cuomo would pay out $67 ($57 profit) if he can overcome Mamdani, while a $10 bet on the favorite would pay out just $14.

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.