


It may sound obvious, but it is very important for handicappers to note that the Preakness Stakes is a very different race from the Kentucky Derby.
What makes the Run for the Roses so unique is that features a field of 20 horses and you can reasonably make a case for more than half the field to win.
The nature of the race makes the Kentucky Derby wildly unpredictable.
The other, and most important, difference between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness (along with every other race on the calendar) is the amount of casual money that pours in on the First Saturday in May.
The Derby is a sporting holiday and one of a few events on the calendar (along with the Super Bowl and March Madness) where seemingly everybody turns into a bettor.
With so much recreational cash in the pools, bettors can get incredible value on some terrific horses in the Kentucky Derby.
It is a huge reason why it’s one of the best betting days of the year.
Unfortunately, there’s closer a 1-to-1 ratio when it comes to smart/dumb money in the Preakness pool, which sharpens the odds quite a bit.
Still, this 149th version of the Preakness Stakes should actually have some terrific value as news came down on Wednesday that the 8-5 morning-line favorite, No. 4 Muth, was scratched due to fever.
That has completely flipped the script.

With Muth out of the field, this race becomes wide open.
Kentucky Derby winner No. 5 Mystik Dan almost certainly will be the clear favorite when it comes to post time and will have plenty of betting support from folks rooting for the Triple Crown to stay alive.
The other horse that likely will see plenty of action now that Muth is on the sidelines is No. 9 Imagination.
Imagination, like Muth, is trained by Bob Baffert and there’s always going to be folks who just blindly back Baffert horses and with just one in the field now, Imagination should see plenty of support.
Though Mystik Dan is deserving of his status as the new favorite with Muth out, the price is going to be way too short on the Triple Crown hopeful.
Yes, Mystik Dan was impressive in his win at Churchill Downs, but he got a perfect trip in that race and don’t forget he was an unfancied long shot to win that race for a reason.
The win certainly raises his stock — especially in a weak field — but this number is going to be way too short on a horse who faces a very quick turnaround.
Trained by Chad Brown, Tuscan Gold’s last time out was a third-place finish at the Louisiana Derby, which is the same distance as the Preakness.
He is lightly raced, but that could be a big plus in a field that features a favorite and three other horses (including a win contender in No. 3 Catching Freedom) making a quick turnaround from Kentucky Derby Day.
Brown, who has won this race twice in last seven years, had this horse pointed to the Preakness for a reason.
It makes sense to back one of the long hots in this kind of field and I’ve landed on Seize the Grey.
Trained by D Wayne Lukas, Seize the Grey is coming off an impressive win in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day and has a decent chance to be on the lead down the stretch now that Muth is out.
The distance could be a challenge, but there’s enough checked boxes at this price.