An inside look at how the 149th Preakness Stakes will play out:
Current form: Broke from the gate last of 10 in the Blue Grass, spotted the field about 10 lengths before passing tired horses to be fifth at odds of 181-1, well back of Sierra Leone.
Worth a wager?: No. He’s 1-for-12 overall and that win was earned on synthetics. Believe in horse/jockey combos? It was the only time Joe Bravo was aboard. Working well in the a.m. It’s the p.m. that’s the problem. Last of eight.
Current form: Took the New York route to Kentucky but never made it to Churchill Downs. Won the Withers by a nose, then a distant fifth in the Wood Memorial.
Worth a wager?: Rider change to Irad Ortiz Jr. will stir betting interest but there are stronger stretch runners in here and his résumé is thin. Thicker when it is wet — 2-for-2 over the mud. He ain’t heavy, he’s seventh.
Current form: Won the Louisiana Derby after running last of 11 down the backstretch. That successful blueprint didn’t work in the congested “Run for the Roses,” and he finished a troubled fourth behind the three-horse win photo.
Worth a wager?: One of three who ran in the first jewel. Flavien Prat has made one Preakness start. Won it with Rombauer. No traffic excuses here with the field set at eight. We are giving him the green light. Winner.
Current form: Ran third, a half-dozen lengths back of Muth in the Arkansas. Five weeks later he won a photo finish for the ages. Took an inside trek and got his nose down to hold off the fast-closing Sierra Leone and Forever Young.
Worth a wager?: Pimlico officials were relieved when Kenny McPeek gave the OK to run back after two weeks. Muth wasn’t in Kentucky and he scratched here. Does his absence open the door for a Triple Crown threat? We’ve got Dan third.
Current form: Big rebound. Finished an up-the-track seventh behind Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass. Tightened to one turn and responded by winning the Pat Day Mile.
Worth a wager?: D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness six times. The first was when dinosaurs roamed the earth, way back in 1980 with Codex. This Arrogate-sired gray may have distance issues. We will place him fifth.
Current form: Broke sharply in the Kentucky Derby and argued the lead into the clubhouse turn. And then … he vanished. Thoroughly disappointing after his surprising second between Muth and Mystik Dan in the Arkansas.
Worth a wager?: Got an early call from track announcer Larry Collmus at Churchill Downs. Can’t recall if I heard his name again. Believe this D. Wayne Lukas colt will finish with his stablemate. A length back in sixth.
Current form: Lightly raced. Three starts. One win, but third, only 1 ³/₄ lengths back of late-kicking Catching Freedom in Louisiana.
Worth a wager?: Chad Brown has won this race twice. Cloud Computing and Early Voting were both lightly raced as well. With Muth out, Tyler Gaffalione, fined for putting a hand on Forever Young in the Derby, may dance with Imagination early. Shakes him off. Gets caught by Catching Freedom. Second.
Current form: Won the San Felipe by a head, then was a neck short in a thin edition of the Santa Anita Derby. The winner, Stronghold, was seventh, 11 lengths back of Catching Freedom at Churchill Downs.
Worth a wager?: The banned Bob Baffert revenge tour took a hit when Muth spiked a fever. But Imagination is more than a rabbit. I imagine Frankie Dettori will have him forwardly placed with Tuscan Gold before giving way. A respectable fourth.