Jewish voters are fearful, yet determined to vote in the coming presidential election — and their support for the Democratic Party is eroding.

That’s what the non-partisan Teach Coalition and Honan Strategy Group recently found in a poll aiming to explore the mindset of Jewish voters in purple Pennsylvania and swing congressional districts in New York. 

We sought to understand the level of political engagement among this voting bloc in light of the upcoming anniversary of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks in Israel and rising antisemitism domestically and internationally.

To understand this mindset, we conducted public opinion polling among 800 self-identified Jewish voters in two critical geographies: the swing state of Pennsylvania and the closely divided New York congressional districts 1, 4, 17, 18, 19 and 22.

The results: Jewish voters are highly politically engaged and ready to cast what could be decisive ballots on Election Day.

However, we also uncovered a noteworthy trend: Jewish people are reluctant to say they are Jewish.

In our initial contacts, 92% of those called from a voter file of likely Jewish voters reported a religious identity of something other than Jewish.

We believe this is representative of a larger issue at play.

After Jewish students — regardless of their opinions about Israel — were singled out and targeted this spring on college campuses, we saw significant anecdotal evidence that Jews went into hiding, literally and figuratively.

Our polling has now quantified that.

Just as pollsters in recent elections have identified “shy” Trump voters, we are today picking up “shy” Jewish voters — those who are willing to participate in our polling calls, but who refuse to self-identify as Jewish to a stranger on the phone.

Only when we altered the poll’s introduction to specify that we were polling the broader Jewish community about issues they are facing could we get many more Jewish voters — 800 for the purposes of our survey — to actually pronounce their Judaism.

Overcoming that hurdle, we found that 56% of Pennsylvania Jewish voters and 66% of those in the New York districts say the events of Oct. 7 have made them much more likely to vote in November.

The rise of antisemitism, too, is increasing Jewish voter engagement: 67% of those polled in both Pennsylvania and New York say that factor makes them more likely to vote this fall.

Similarly, 76% of Pennsylvania Jewish voters and 75% of Jewish voters in the New York swing seats say that the outcome of the 2024 Presidential election is very or somewhat important.

While Jewish voters are a relatively small group nationally, they are very politically engaged — and are particularly influential in key states and districts that could well decide who controls the White House and Congress.

President Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes in 2020, four years after President Trump won it by 45,000 votes.

With roughly 300,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, this makes them a potentially decisive voting bloc. 

Our polling found that the presidential race in Pennsylvania is almost evenly divided among Jewish voters, with 49% for Vice President Harris and 42% for Trump.

That represents a huge drop-off for Democrats: In 2020, national polls showed Biden winning the Jewish vote 68% to 30%. 

The trend held but was less pronounced in the New York districts, with 56% for Harris and 37% for Trump.

Similarly, five of the key New York swing House races were decided in the 2022 midterm elections by less than 5,000 votes, and another swing seat was decided by less than 10,000. 

Our estimates indicate there are 23,000 to 82,000 Jewish voters in each one of these districts — more than enough to decide the election.

The robust turnout among Jewish voters in recent primaries is likely to continue through November, our poll indicates.

In June’s congressional primary between George Latimer and Jamaal Bowman in New York’s 16th district, the Teach Coalition’s work helped to turn out 58% of eligible Jewish voters in Westchester.

Those voters represented one out of every four ballots cast overall, including 35% of early ballots.

All these factors mean turnout among Jewish voters is expected to be at an all-time high this November — and these voters could prove to be decisive in pivotal races.  

Candidates taking the Jewish vote for granted may well go down to defeat.

Maury Litwack is founder and CEO of the Teach Coalition. Bradley Honan is CEO and president of Honan Strategy Group, a Democratic polling and data analytics company.