It’s been a frustrating start for the defending World Series champion Astros, who enter Tuesday’s matchup with a worse record than the Pirates.

I wouldn’t expect either team to run away with this one in a sneaky pitchers’ duel.

Houston starter Cristian Javier struggled in his first start of the year (5 IP, 8 H, 3 ER), but he settled in on Wednesday with six innings of one-run ball to bring his ERA to a respectable 3.27.

Even that doesn’t tell the whole story: Entering the week, Javier ranked among the top 10 of all qualified starters in FIP (1.67) and led the majors in swing rate outside the zone (51%).

That tracks with his stellar stretch to close 2022, when he posted a 2.25 ERA and led qualified AL starters in strikeout rate (34.4%) and zone contact rate (79.1%) over his final 19 outings. 

(6:35 p.m. ET.)

Mitch Keller is finally showing signs of the electric starter that Pirates fans and bettors alike have been anticipating for years.

He struck out seven Red Sox batters across seven innings in his last start — and his 78 strikes were the most by a Pirate since 2015 (Gerrit Cole).

He should be able to sustain that against an Astros lineup that hasn’t looked right without Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley, while a thin Pirates order will be without Oneil Cruz.

It adds up to a sweet spot for Under bettors.

The Play: Astros-Pirates Under 8.5 (FanDuel)