Last season, the Reds were the laughingstock of MLB and one of the worst bets in baseball on a game-to-game basis.

But I’d be hard-pressed to bet against emerging ace Nick Lodolo, who’s making his case as one of the best pitchers in the majors.

The former top prospect has teased elite swing-and-miss potential dating to his time in the minors, when he struck out 126 batters in just 81²/₃ innings (13.9 K/9).

We saw that on full display in his final six starts of 2022, during which he spun a 2.48 ERA with 49 strikeouts across 36¹/₃ innings.

He has been virtually untouchable in his first two starts in 2023, too.

Entering Wednesday, Lodolo led the majors in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) at 0.91 and K/9 at 15.75 while ranking third among all qualified starters in fWAR (FanGraphs’ calculation of Wins Above Replacement) at 0.7 and CSW% (Called Strikes and Whiff rate) at 34.1%.

(6:40 p.m. Eastern)

He coaxed 21 swinging strikes against the Pirates in his season debut on April 1, and he followed that up with seven scoreless innings while punching out 12 Phillies batters on Saturday.

Philadelphia scored three runs off the Reds’ bullpen in that game, though Cincy’s relievers have been among MLB’s best per advanced metrics, and the Phillies’ lineup hasn’t quite looked right with Bryce Harper (elbow), Rhys Hoskins (knee) and Darick Hall (thumb) all on the mend.

There’s value on a full-game bet here, but I’m especially intrigued by fading Philly’s offense in an unenviable spot against Lodolo and company.

Phillies under 4.5 runs scored (-155, BetMGM)