The Phillies have caught lightning in a bottle.

Bryce Harper is mashing the ball, Trea Turner has rediscovered his stroke, and the team boasts the best offense in baseball over the past month (.921 OPS, 144 wRC+).

They are 19-13 since Aug. 1 entering Wednesday and have built a five-game cushion in the NL wild card race. 

The red-hot Phils now square off against the Padres and starting pitcher Michael Wacha on Wednesday.

Wacha’s 2.85 ERA makes him look like a formidable opponent, but his 4.30 expected ERA shows he’s vastly overvalued. 

Wacha relies on a changeup to induce soft contact and lazy flies.

Unfortunately for him, the Phillies crush changeups, boasting the seventh-highest expected wOBA against the pitch (.306). 

Meanwhile, Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler is vastly undervalued.

His 3.62 ERA is a half-run higher than his 3.14 expected ERA. 

Wheeler, however, has seen some positive regression, pitching to a 2.73 ERA over his past eight starts.

Bet on him and the red-hot Phillies, especially against an underwhelming Padres unit led by an overvalued Wacha. 

At his best, Wheeler is a workhorse Cy Young candidate in the mold of Sandy Alcantara.

He prevents runs at an elite level while pitching a ton of innings. 

The Padres shouldn’t be a problem for Wheeler.

San Diego’s been a disappointment all year, and it boasts a bottom-10 offense against right-handed pitching over the past month (.701 OPS, 97 wRC+). 

The pick: Phillies -130 (BetMGM)