Over the past month and against left-handed pitching, the Diamondbacks rank third in <a href="https://nypost.com/article/best-baseball-betting-sites/">MLB</a> in weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). 

Their 140 mark indicates they’ve been 40 percent better at run production against that side than the league average during the stretch.&nbsp;

So, Philadelphia starting pitcher Ranger Suarez is in trouble. 

The lefty is having a “meh” year, with a 4.70 ERA and underwhelming underlying statistics. The Snakes should take advantage.&nbsp;

Arizona starting pitcher Merrill Kelly is a guy I usually try to back. 

He’s due for slight regression (2.92 ERA, 3.74 expected ERA), but his strikeout and ground-ball rates are up 5 percent from last season, so he’s generating more whiffs and weak contact.

The Phillies are no better than a league-average offense against right-handed pitching, so I’m very comfortable backing Kelly in this spot. 

<a href="https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/Merrill-Kelly-e1686694139373.jpg"><button class="button button--modal-trigger " aria-label="Open the image in a modal." data-modal-image="27471633"> 
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<img data-modal-image="27471633" loading="lazy" width="100%" height="auto" src="https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/Merrill-Kelly-e1686694139373.jpg?w=1024" alt="Merrill Kelly" class="wp-image-27471633"></a><figcaption>Merrill Kelly</figcaption><figcaption><span class="credit">Getty Images</span></figcaption>

Arizona also has a slight advantage in the bullpen and a monster advantage in the field.&nbsp;

By reliever expected FIP, the Snakes boast a top-10 bullpen while the Phillies are closer to the league average.&nbsp;

And by Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, the Diamondbacks are one of the best defensive teams in baseball, while the Phillies are one of the worst. 

Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos are two of the worst defensive outfielders in the league.

Entering Tuesday, the Diamondbacks had won eight of their past nine home games against the Phillies.

This is a great matchup for the Snakes, so I’m willing to bet they take down the Phils one more time.&nbsp;

<strong>The play: D’backs moneyline (-125, <a href="https://nypost.com/article/fanduel-sign-up-offer/">FanDuel</a>)</strong>

Here’s who we’re backing when the Phillies play the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.{ai:summary}<p>Arizona Diamondbacks are due to face Philadelphia Phillies, and they have an advantage. Arizona has a better record than Philadelphia against left-handed pitchers, and Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez is having a "meh" year so far, with a 4.70 ERA. To add to their advantage, Arizona's Merrill Kelly has better stats than he did last year, and Phillies are no better than an average offense against right-handed pitching. On top of that, Arizona has advantages in bullpen and field, and the Diamondbacks have won eight of their past nine home games against the Phillies. #sports</p>

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick: MLB odds, predictions, best bets

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