We now have around seven weeks of data on the 2023 season, a solid enough sample size to take a second look at the MLB futures market. 

Despite a slow start to the season, the Mets find themselves just 4.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves coming into Tuesday.

And one player has been leading the way for the Metropolitans amid their recent hot streak.

The current NL MVP favorite is Ronald Acuna Jr., which is fair. No player has been better in the early going than the Braves outfielder, who leads MLB with 2.6 fWAR. 

Acuna is currently +125 to win the award. Meanwhile, Pete Alonso is the runner-up in the betting markets at (13/1). 

That spread in price is far too high.

I think Alonso has a good shot at overtaking Acuna in the betting markets, or at least a better chance than the market gives him.

Alonso is the current MLB home run leader and is on pace for a career-high 11.2 percent walk rate. So, he’s showing solid plate discipline while crushing the ball. 

However, there’s one glaring statistic dragging down Alonso’s overall numbers: BABIP. He profiles as a low-BABIP hitter, but his .202 BABIP is excruciatingly low (career .268).

As a result, Alonso’s unlucky BABIP number is dragging down his whole slash line.

His expected batting average is 50 points higher than his actual, and his expected slugging is 80 points higher. 

Meanwhile, Acuna’s .364 BABIP should regress slightly, and he’s always an injury risk.

Acuna hasn’t played more than 120 games in a season since 2019. 

Also, the narrative is wide open for Alonso.

The Mets have zero power in the rest of their lineup, and if Alonso carries the Mets to a playoff berth behind an NL-leading 40 or 50 home runs, you’d be hard-pressed to counter-argue his MVP case.