The Pittsburgh Penguins have a massive opportunity to solidify their hold on a playoff spot on Tuesday night.
After the Florida Panthers lost to the Ottawa Senators on Monday, Pittsburgh can give itself a five-point cushion with a win over the floundering Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena.
Unsurprisingly, the betting market is backing the Pens to get the job done, with 68% of the bets at the time of writing are on Pittsburgh as a -180 road favorite.
Those splits make plenty of sense as bettors tend to gravitate towards teams in must-win spots when they’re taking on a team playing out the string.
Putting that aside, this does seem like a steep price to pay on an inconsistent team, no matter the stakes.
And it’s not like this inconsistency is a new phenomenon for this team.
(7 p.m. ET., ESPN+)
The Penguins are 4-5-1 in their last 10, but they’re also 17-18-5 in their last 40 games, which is the 23rd-best record in the NHL in that span.
It should be noted that Detroit has a worse record in that timeframe, but not by much. These two teams have played to similar results for quite some time now.
And it’s not just the results that are similar.
Both the Red Wings and Penguins suffer from similar flaws.
Neither team currently has reliable goaltending, and both clubs lack the depth needed to contend with the elite competition in the Eastern Conference.
The Penguins are the more talented roster, but if Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel, and Evgeni Malkin are not at the races, the Penguins don’t have a supporting cast to bail them out of trouble.
That problem has only been exacerbated by injuries recently, as the Penguins are likely to be without four of their top-six defenseman and their No. 4 center for this contest.
Detroit’s 3-7 record over its last 10 games is ugly, and there is always the chance that the Wings will no-show, but the underlying metrics suggest some optimism around this team.
Over their last 10 games, the Red Wings rank 11th in expected goals rate and 12th in shot attempt percentage, meaning they’ve actually tilted the ice in the right direction.
Those numbers won’t leap off the page, but they do suggest that the Wings have played better than their 3-7 record of late.
These are two pedestrian teams with fatal flaws, but that isn’t how it will be bet.
The betting market will look favorably on the Penguins in this spot since the Red Wings are out of the playoff picture, and Pittsburgh desperately needs the victory.
As usual, that narrative is inflating the price on a mediocre team and providing value zagging the other way.
Red Wings +155 (BetMGM)