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NY Post
New York Post
3 Jun 2024


NextImg:Panthers vs. Oilers Stanley Cup Final odds, prediction: Florida roughs up Connor McDavid

The NHL Stanley Cup Final is set and it’s the Florida Panthers again coming out of the East, set to meet the Edmonton Oilers in a somewhat surprising result out of the Western Conference.

Florida is the favorite, entering the Stanley Cup Final at -130 odds on DraftKings, with the Oilers at +110.

The Panthers have the benefit of home ice through the series, which should be quite the advantage, considering how well Edmonton has performed in these playoffs.

Edmonton was out-shot, 34-10, in Game 6, yet still won thanks to some fancy Connor McDavid footwork that led to the opening goal on a power play, followed by a second first-period power play goal by Zach Hyman.

However, that strategy might not be too successful against a Panthers team which has made opposing power plays look like a non-issue in these playoffs.

In their last 10 games, the Panthers have an insane 92.3 percent kill rate on power plays, something that will need to translate to this series against the Oilers.

Edmonton was fourth in the NHL in power play goals (60) this past regular season and third in expected goal percentage (92.18 percent) in advantaged situations.

Expect the Panthers to get very physical with the Oilers’ stars from the very first puck drop, beginning June 8 at 8 p.m. live from Amerant Bank Arena.

Is Connor McDavid on an unstoppable path to The Cup.
Is Connor McDavid on an unstoppable path to The Cup? NHLI via Getty Images

As is often the case, this series will come down to special teams, which has been a major advantage for Florida through the first three series.

Adding to the equation is goal tending which in theory would be a massive advantage for Florida, considering Edmonton benched Stuart Skinner once already this postseason, while the Panthers boast Sergei Bobrovsky between the pipes.

Skinner actually looked excellent toward the end of the Stars series, where the Oilers won the final two games, including a Game 6 road victory in Dallas.

The Florida Panthers will look to rough up Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid early and often.
The Florida Panthers will look to rough up Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid early and often. Getty Images

According to MoneyPuck, the Oilers have actually been the luckiest team in the NHL playoffs, and while, yes, every team that gets this far needs a fair bit of bounces to go its way, this is an excess amount of luck that makes it difficult to bet on them.

Edmonton has scored 3.6 more goals than expected in the 5-on-5, the most among all playoff teams, while the Panthers have actually been unlucky, according to MoneyPuck.

Florida has scored 4.74 fewer goals than expected in those situations.

The Panthers also has the most low-danger shots among all playoff teams after finishing third in the league during the regular season.

That’s actually a good stat to note, as the Panthers will be focused on breaking the Oilers’ goaltending and pepper Skinner with shots from start to finish.

The Panthers are a rightful favorite and could be prepared to bring The Cup home to Florida.

PICK: Panthers win the Stanley Cup (-130, DraftKings, BetMGM)