The odds could hardly be tighter for the 2024-25 Stanley Cup Final.
The Oilers are a nominal -120 favorite over the Panthers to lift Lord Stanley’s mug, but this is essentially a pick ’em, a coin flip, a 50/50 matchup between familiar foes for all the marbles.
When you get to this part of the playoffs, it’s hard to poke holes in either team. It’s quite a feat to make it this far, so you’re probably doing just about everything right.
But there are a couple of advantages that point to one side of this matchup.
The most glaring edge is in goal, where the Panthers will feel much more comfortable with their setup than the Oilers, even if Stuart Skinner has rebounded after a disastrous start to the playoffs.
Sergei Bobrovsky has been steady as she goes for the Cats for the third straight postseason, posting a .912 save percentage and a plus-8.5 Goals Saved Above Expected in 17 contests.
The 36-year-old Russian is the second favorite behind Connor McDavid to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.
Skinner deserves plenty of credit for his remarkable turnaround, but this is a familiar tune out of the Alberta native. He is incredibly streaky and could fall off the boil without warning.
The other factor that tilts the scales toward the Cats is their journey to get to this point.
This is the third trip to the Stanley Cup Final in as many years for Paul Maurice’s Panthers.
After losing to Vegas in 2023, the Cats outlasted the Oilers in a classic one year ago. That series saw Florida race out to a 3-0 lead, only for Edmonton to storm back and force a Game 7.
The Panthers would eke out a 2-1 win in the finale, earning them their first Stanley Cup.
The point is, these Panthers have seen it all.
There isn’t a situation that you can throw at them that they won’t be able to handle.
That’s what makes them such an intriguing opponent for the Oilers. Edmonton has overwhelmed everybody that’s been in its path this postseason, but those opponents clearly became shaken up after McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and company wrested control of their series.
Edmonton lost its first two games of the Stanley Cup playoffs, only to win 12 of its next 14. Once the 18-wheeler got rolling, everyone got out of the way.
The Oilers won’t find it so easy against the Panthers.
If Edmonton races out to an early lead in this series, Florida won’t panic. The Panthers erased a 2-0 deficit in Round 2 against the Maple Leafs, and famously wiped away a 3-1 deficit against the record-setting Bruins in Round 1 of the 2023 playoffs.
And the Panthers won’t fret if they’re the ones who get a lead and cough it up, because they did that against the Oilers in last year’s Final, and lost Game 6 against the Maple Leafs at home in Round 2 this year, only to respond with a dominant win on the road in Game 7.
We know Edmonton has been superb at getting things to go their way in these playoffs, but they’re coming up against a team that is masterful at finding ways to win when you know what hits the fan.
That makes the Panthers worth a bet to repeat at +110 odds.
PICK: Panthers win the Stanley Cup (+110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.