Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final looks like a tricky contest to handicap.
As with any curtain-raiser in a best-of-7 series, there’s a chance that Saturday’s match between the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights could be stodgy as the two teams feel one another out.
But at the same time, there are some signs in this matchup that point to Game 1 opening up and going off the rails.
Let’s take a look and see if we can find some value.
(8 p.m. Eastern, TNT)
The goaltending in this series is obviously going to be a focal point.
That’s always the case in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and is only going to be amplified because of the nature of this battle between Sergei Bobrovsky and Adin Hill.
Bobrovsky is the more known commodity at this point and he’s in exquisite form, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t come without question marks.
Ever since signing a gigantic contract with the Panthers in 2019, Bobrovsky’s level has been all over the place.
The two-time Vezina Trophy winner has shown flashes of greatness, but inconsistency has defined his career in Florida.
Nobody would have considered him a sure thing before the postseason began and he didn’t even start Game 1 of Round 1.
That honor went to Alex Lyon, a journeyman backup who got hot down the stretch and played the Cats into the playoffs while Bobrovsky was recovering from an illness.
But Bobrovsky has been lights out since taking the net back from Lyon.
The 34-year-old is 11-2 in the playoffs and has skated to a .935 save percentage and a +19.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
He’s rightfully the betting favorite to win the Conn Smythe Award.
Bobrovsky is the A-side in this goaltending duel, but that’ll sit just fine with Hill, who was not given much of a chance to outplay Jake Oettinger in the Western Conference Finals.
Hill would do just that and is now sitting with a sparkling .937 save percentage and +6.4 GSAx in 11 appearances this postseason.
All of this probably sounds terrific for a bet on the under 5.5 goals, but there’s no guarantee that both — or either — goaltender in this matchup continue to light it up.
Hill is a career backup who has never really been considered more than an average NHL netminder, while Bobrovsky could easily revert back to his inconsistent ways, especially after a two-week layoff.
And the fact that Bobrovsky’s had to play so well for Florida to go on this run tells you that he’s masking some serious defensive issues.
The narrative that this will be a slushy, feel-it-out type of game and the fact that we’re dealing with two red-hot goaltenders is going to drive most bettors toward the under.
Fade that narrative and hope that this thing opens up.
Over 5.5 goals (-115, FanDuel)