Every playoff game has a different narrative and that absolutely must factor into the handicapping angle.
For the first time in this series, the NBA Finals feature a potential closeout game. That certainly impacts the point spread, total and player props. The dilemma is assessing how it impacts all the wagering options and to what degree.
Additionally, Pacers All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton has an uncertain status with a calf strain. He’s officially listed as a game-time decision.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are now a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 221.5. The point spread moved up two points between games because of Haliburton’s status updates.
Haliburton’s player props understandably have been adjusted and so have those for other Indy guards. In my eyes, it’s just too difficult to find value without knowing his true status.
However, I think we have a good opportunity with Thunder big man Chet Holmgren and his production, since OKC changed its starting lineup ahead of Game 4. That lineup adjustment has created extreme betting value, in my eyes.
Isaiah Hartenstein started the entire postseason, but Thunder coach Mark Daigneault relegated him to a bench role the first three games of the Finals. That forced Holmgren to guard Indy center Myles Turner, who mostly lurks on the perimeter on offense. That understandably inhibited Holmgren’s rebounding production.
However, once Hartenstein returned to the starting lineup and guarded Turner, Holmgren was moved to guard players closer to the rim and thus found himself in a normal rebounding position. That led to 26 boards over the past two games.
I have a 51-41-1 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds in Game 6 (-107, BetRivers).
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.