It’s been a tough start to the season for the Nationals, who had lost 11 of their first 16 games entering Tuesday’s MLB contest vs. the Orioles.

And it won’t get any easier with youngster Josiah Gray on the mound.

The 25-year-old currently boasts the best ERA of his career (4.32), anchored by one solid start at Coors Field when he threw six innings of one-run ball with 18 swinging strikes. 

Yet it’s hard to detach that from the competition — the Rockies rank among the worst in baseball in chase rate (32.8%) and whiff rate (28.1%). In his other two starts, Gray has been an abject disaster.

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He allowed three home runs in his season debut against the Braves, and he landed just 55 of his 103 pitches for strikes (53.4%) in last Tuesday’s loss to the Angels before getting chased in the sixth inning. 

With a middling fastball and no elite secondary pitch, it’s no surprise Gray has one of the lowest strikeout rates (18.1%) in baseball — a key reason why he entered the week with the fourth-highest FIP (6.14) in the majors.

That’s a major concern against the red-hot Orioles, who ranked in the top five in wOBA (.354) and barrel rate (11.4%).

All of that bodes well for Baltimore’s moneyline, but with shaky starter Dean Kramer (9.49 ERA) on the mound, I’d rather directly fade Gray and the Nationals’ relievers, who already had blown three saves and owned the third-highest hard-hit rate (35.6%) of any bullpen.

THE PLAY: Orioles team total Over 4.5 runs (-112, FanDuel)