No. 3 Penn State has not put a foot wrong in 2025, but the Nittany Lions won’t stop hearing from the critics until they take that next step.

Coming up just short, whether it be in a do-or-die game in the regular season or in the College Football Playoff semifinals last year, has become the M.O. in Happy Valley during the James Franklin era.

A win over No. 6 Oregon at Beaver Stadium on Saturday would go a long way in quieting the noise around Franklin and the Nittany Lions.

Penn State is a 3.5-point favorite under the Central PA lights on Saturday.

Neither one of these teams has really faced anybody of note through the first month of the season. Penn State has blown out Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, while Oregon has done the same to Montana State, Oregon State, Northwestern, and Oklahoma State.

It’s hard to glean much from those games that we didn’t already know about these two heavyweights. They’re very good!

The one thing that has stood out on the Oregon side has been how well the Ducks have protected quarterback Dante Moore.

Keeping Moore upright against Northwestern or Montana State is one thing, but doing so against Penn State will be a whole new ballgame. Nonetheless, the Ducks have given us no reason to doubt that they can handle themselves in the trenches.

Penn State’s offense has also given us no reason to worry, though you can poke holes in its ability to strike quickly.

Drew Allar is going to be a high pick in April because of his ability to manage a game efficiently, but the passing game struggles to keep secondaries honest by hitting them for big plays.

These two teams are viewed as peers by the betting market, but Penn State is the favorite on Saturday for a couple of reasons. The Nittany Lions are rested after a bye, while Oregon has to travel across the country to play in a hostile environment.

Perhaps that’s enough to make Penn State a 3.5-point favorite, but I’d push back on that. While home-field advantage plays a factor, Franklin’s 4-20 record against top-10 opponents needs to be accounted for this matchup.

I’ll take the points in this coin flip.

The Play: Oregon +3.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.