When considering legendary college football rivalries, the Egg Bowl may not come to mind. 

But there’s no doubt that this is among the best games played during rivalry week. 

The in-state battle is dead even over the past 20 years, with three of the past four editions decided by one possession. 

These two teams hate each other and feel very passionately about earning the Egg. 

From a motivational perspective, Mississippi State has the edge, given the 5-6 Bulldogs need an upset victory to earn a bowl bid. 

From a betting perspective, it should be a lower-scoring affair. 

Ole Miss likes establishing the inside-zone rush game behind elusive back Quinshon Judkins. 

The Rebels don’t have the best offensive line, ranking 102nd nationally in Offensive Line Yards, so their advanced rush metrics are middling (58th in Rush Success Rate, 54th in EPA per Rush). 

Luckily, Judkins doesn’t need blocking to be successful. He avoids and breaks tackles as well as any back, ranking 14th nationally among qualified running backs in missed tackles forced (54) and yards after contact (700).

Once Judkins gets going, the Rebels can set up the patented Lane Kiffin play-action passing attack. 

Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart has recorded the third-most play-action passing yards of any FBS quarterback this season (1,617), and the Rebels rank 11th nationally in Pass Explosiveness thanks to deep balls after the linebackers get dragged down. 

That said, it could be difficult for the Rebels can establish their game plan on Thursday. 

The Bulldogs have struggled this season, but their front seven has been a bright spot. The Bulldogs rank above average nationally in Defensive Line Yards (38th), EPA per Rush allowed (41st) and Rush Success Rate allowed (48th). 

They’ve been particularly good against inside-zone rushes, and they’ve rarely allowed opposing backs to break loose from tackles, boasting the SEC’s third-best broken plus missed tackle rate (9.5%) while ranking 26th nationally in Pro Football Focus’ tackling grades. 

While it was only Southern Miss, the Bulldogs’ front seven managed to hold the electric Frank Gore Jr. to only three yards per carry last week. Gore is among the Group of Five’s best backs, so this isn’t a meaningless accomplishment. 

If Ole Miss can’t run the ball, Dart won’t have the opportunity to hit those tasty play-action passing routes. Dart’s completion rate is 5% lower on non-play-action passing plays, and his yards per attempt is 2.9 yards lower. 

Ole Miss also lacks motivation outside of the rivalry, as they’ve already achieved bowl eligibility and are out of the SEC Championship picture. Kiffin, Dart, Judkins, and Co. might be sleepy and sloppy in a short-week road game. 

That’s how Ole Miss looked last week against Louisiana-Monroe. The Rebels looked lifeless for 20 minutes before finally putting up three scores in the third quarter.

Mississippi State will have their own problems scoring.

Mississippi State ranks 123rd nationally in Success Rate and 113th in EPA per Play. 

Starting quarterback Will Rogers returned from an injury hiatus last week, which was supposed to spark the Bulldogs’ attack. 

It didn’t. 

Rogers completed just 12 of his 27 passes against lowly Southern Miss. 

Ole Miss’ defense isn’t any good, but the Bulldogs can’t score on anybody, averaging only 23 points per game this season (94th nationally). 

Ultimately, I don’t expect either offense to score much on Thanksgiving in Starkville, so I’m happily betting the Under 54.5 (-110) available at Caesars Sportsbook. 

Five straight editions of the Egg Bowl have stayed under the closing total. Expect more of the same and wager accordingly. 

Under 54.5 (-110) at Caesars | Play to 54 (-110)