Many teams are jumping into conference play this week. 

But surprisingly, Oklahoma still has three more non-conference games before entering Big 12 play and North Carolina has two more before ACC competition. 

Those journeys start Wednesday with a head-to-head matchup at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. 

Given this game is in North Carolina, the crowd will be pro-Tar Heel even if it’s not in Chapel Hill. 

Pair that with the situational spot for UNC and I’m betting heavily on the Heels in this big non-conference college basketball game. 

(Odds via BetMGM)

(9 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

The Sooners are undefeated at 10-0 but haven’t played a top-tier opponent yet. 

They haven’t played a single KenPom top-40 or Quad 1 opponent. Their best win is a two-point neutral-court victory over USC, and they needed a 10-for-22 (45.5%) 3-point shooting performance to pull it off.

They haven’t played a single true road game yet.

While this doesn’t qualify as one, it’ll be the most hostile environment they’ve played in. 

It’s time for Oklahoma to lose a game, and this is the one. 

Meanwhile, Wednesday night presents an excellent buy-low opportunity for North Carolina, looking to bounce back off consecutive losses against Connecticut and Kentucky. 

Speaking of strength of schedule, it’s hard to stack up with the Heels in that regard. The Heels have played six consecutive games against KenPom top-100 opponents, including four Quad 1. Per Team Rankings, they’ve played the nation’s 11th-toughest schedule. 

The Tar Heels went 3-3 during this stretch, but two losses came by a combined six points – including an overtime loss to Villanova – while the three wins came by a combined 31 points. 

The Heels are battle-tested, while the Sooners aren’t ready for a bump in competition in a brutal environment. 

Schematically, I don’t mind this matchup for North Carolina. 

The Sooners run an up-tempo, ball-screen-heavy, rim-running offense. Porter Moser wants to get the ball into Javian McCollum’s hands so he can dribble-drive and dish to John Hugley and Otega Oweh. 

But it’s hard to get inside on the Heels because Armando Bacot is a dominant interior presence. Per ShotQuality, the Heels allow only 30% of opposing shots at the rim, the 10th-lowest mark nationally. 

Even better, the Heels only allow six fast-break points per game (90th percentile), which should hamstring a Sooners offense that lives on fast-break points (14 per game). 

The Heels can stop what Oklahoma wants to do. 

These teams are mirror images of each other, as North Carolina also loves to run the floor with RJ Davis, Cormac Ryan and Elliot Cadeau while posting up on the interior with Bacot. 

The Sooners’ defensive metrics against transition and post-up sets look good, but I believe the numbers are inflated due to an easy schedule. 

More importantly, I don’t think Hugley or backup center Sam Godwin can defend Bacot down low, as both are smaller than the 6-foot-11, 240-pound Bacot and merely average in post-up PPP allowed (Hugley 0.77, 58th percentile; Godwin 7.3, 63rd percentile).

And, more generally, the Heels can score on anybody.

Their offense has been humming, as they rank ninth nationally in offensive efficiency while scoring 85 PPG. They dropped 100 on Tennessee, supposedly among the nation’s elite defenses. 

But this handicap is primarily predicated on the situational spot. The Sooners are overvalued after a hot start against sub-par competition, and the Heels are undervalued after back-to-back losses against championship contenders. 

The ShotQualityBets model agrees, projecting the Heels as eight-point semi-home favorites over Oklahoma. 

As a result, I’m all over the Heels as short favorites and would play them at -3 (-110) or better. 

North Carolina -1.5 (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook | Play to -3 (-110)