Everything is coming up Oilers.
Edmonton is ahead, 3-1, in its best-of-seven series against the Dallas Stars, and is 11-4 with a plus-17 goal difference in the Stanley Cup playoffs overall.
It’s no wonder that everyone is just treating the rest of the Western Conference finals as a coronation for the Oilers.
There’s no getting around the fact that Edmonton has been the best team in the postseason, but that doesn’t mean that Dallas is just going to roll out the red carpet and get ready for handshakes in Game 5.
The Stars are a -130 favorite on home ice Thursday, and there are some signals that there could be a few more twists and turns in this series.
The Stars came out of the gates hot in this series, winning, 6-3, in Game 1. Since then, Dallas has been outscored,13-2, and has scored once at 5-on-5.
That sounds desperate for the Stars, but the stats show that Dallas has been playing a lot better than the series scoreline suggests.
Edmonton has outscored Dallas, 9-3, at 5-on-5, but the expected goals battle is much closer. The Oilers have generated 10.7 xG, while the Stars have created 8.7. The scales still tilt in Edmonton’s favor, but it’s much tighter than the box score would make you believe.
The difference in this series has been that the Oilers have been more clinical in front of goal, and they’ve benefited from superb goaltending from Stuart Skinner.
While the Oilers are likely to continue being a strong finishing team, Skinner’s form is a lot harder to project. He’s known as a streaky goaltender, and it’s not that long ago that he was struggling to make a save.
The Oilers are getting all the hype right now, but the Stanley Cup playoffs have a way of taking sharp turns when you least expect it.
Dallas is a really strong outfit, and if anybody can erase this deficit, it’s the Stars.
There are a number of ways you can attack Dallas in the betting market. You can back them to win Game 5, you can bet them to come back and win the series, you can take them to win the Stanley Cup at 13/1 odds or you can even explore the Conn Smythe market.
The point is, Dallas is undervalued in this matchup.
The Play: Stars -130 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.