Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final went according to plan for the Florida Panthers.
The Cats were physical and boisterous, prompting the Edmonton Oilers to engage in the after-the-whistle chicanery that is a huge part of their identity.
Nobody was on their best behavior on Monday night, which is always good news for the Panthers, who are the masters of blurring the line between shenanigans and penalties.
In the end, there were 17 power plays – including 11 for Florida – and 140 penalty minutes in Game 3. It was terrific theater, but the Oilers will regret taking the bait.
The truth is that what happened in Game 3 was inevitable. The Panthers laid the foundation for the circus-like atmosphere of Monday night by getting under Edmonton’s skin at every opportunity in the first two contests.
The Oilers could only take so much before things spiraled, which they did in an emphatic 6-1 victory for Florida.
Now, it’s up to Edmonton to avoid a repeat performance in Game 4.
Stylistically, you’d think that the Oilers would benefit from an open, back-and-forth contest. Edmonton has speed to burn and skill to envy, so the more space out there, the better for the Oilers, right?
Against most opponents, you’d say absolutely. But the problem is that the Panthers are the most adaptable team of this era. Florida doesn’t have the speed that Edmonton does, but the Cats are comfortable in frenetic games with a lot of pace, because they are ruthless on the counter-attack.
Florida’s aggression forces you into mistakes, and playing with speed always makes you more susceptible to errors, so the Oilers may want to slow things down a bit and sacrifice some speed for control.
That won’t throw the Panthers for a loop; they can play any style they need, but it should keep the temperature down, which is paramount when you’re playing the Cats, especially in their barn.
The temptation with Thursday night’s contest is to assume that it will look a lot like the first three games of this series, with early goals and a lot of chaos. There will be plenty of bettors lined up to bet the over 6.5, plus the first-period over, given how this matchup has looked through what has essentially been 11.5 periods of play.
It may be wise to bet against that happening, not just because you’ll get good numbers to swim against the current, but also because the Oilers may try to throw a changeup in Game 4 in order to take the sting out of what is pretty close to a must-win contest for them.
You can build a juicy same-game parlay by leaning into this hypothesis that Thursday night’s battle will be closer to a snoozer than the electric spectacle we’ve grown accustomed to seeing when these two teams hit the ice.
The first leg will be the first period to end scoreless at +450. It’s a dangerous bet, given how each of the first three games played out, but given how desperate the Oilers will be, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a nervy start to this tilt.
The next two legs will hone in on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who should play monster minutes because of the way this schedule has shaped up. This is just the second game in the last six days.
McDavid is +250 to record at least five shots on goal in regulation, and Draisaitl is +154 to get to four.
To finish it off, we’ll toss in the Oilers +126 on the moneyline, which gets us to 86/1 at FanDuel.
PICK: SGP – First quarter under .5 goals + Connor McDavid 5+ shots + Leon Draisaitl 4+ shots + Oilers moneyline (+8600, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.