Denver waltzed into the Crypto.com arena on Saturday and gutted out a 119-108 win, moving within one game of the NBA Finals.
You’d expect the Lakers to bounce back at some point, especially with the prideful LeBron James at the helm.
But the Nuggets have been so overwhelmingly better.
So, I’m unsure what will happen, and I honestly don’t care.
Instead, I’m eyeing another betting angle in this one.
Spread: Nuggets +3 (-110) vs. Lakers -3 (-110)
Moneyline: Nuggets (+122) vs. Lakers (-145)
Total: Over 224.5 (-110) | Under 224.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars, current at time of writing and subject to change.
The Lakers have a few avenues to offense.
One is dumping it down to Anthony Davis, one of the sport’s best low-post and high-post big men.
Another is getting Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves going, or even Dennis Schroder. Any of their role players can step up on any given night.
But the third, and arguably most consistent, is getting out in transition.
James is still a devastating transition scorer and passer, the roster is happy to run, and coach Darvin Ham pushes the pace. As a result, the Lakers finished the regular season with the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA, getting out in transition at the fifth-highest rate.
And they haven’t stopped during this playoff run. For example, the Lakers had 12 transition opportunities in Game 6, scoring 1.22 points per possession during those chances.
As a result, L.A. overs are hot – Laker games have exceeded the closing total in nine of their past 10, including two of three games during this series.
However, the Nuggets haven’t flinched in the face of the up-tempo Lakers. Denver picked up 14 transition opportunities in Game 3 and consistently out-ran the Lakers when playing at Mile High altitude.
Denver head coach Mike Malone talked about Nikola Jokic’s transition ability in a post-game presser during this series, saying:
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“Nikola’s like Secretariat. That guy can run for days.”
Ultimately, this series has been fast-paced and high-scoring, and I don’t expect that to stop in Game 4.
Also, the Lakers should come out with their best effort down 3-0, so I expect some big buckets early.
But, unfortunately, I don’t see the Lakers starting to get stops now.
The Nuggets have a whopping 120.9 offensive rating during this series. They’re too consistent with Jokic running the offense, so they’ve scored against the Lakers in any way possible.
Meanwhile, the Lakers have a surprisingly potent 113.9 offensive rating in the series. So, they haven’t just been pushing the pace, but they’ve also been scoring at a relatively efficient rate.
As a result, look for a high-flying, electric Game 4 in Los Angeles on Monday night. Bet accordingly.
Over 224.5 (-110) | Play to 226 (-110) — Caesars Sportsbook