Notre Dame travels to Miami on Sunday night to write a new chapter in the ‘Catholics vs. Convicts’ rivalry.
The Fighting Irish, fresh off a trip to the National Championship last winter, are 2.5-point favorites over the Hurricanes, who are projected to play second fiddle to Clemson in the ACC.
Both teams had to replace their quarterbacks in the offseason, with Miami opting to bring in Carson Beck from Georgia, while Notre Dame will trust redshirt freshman CJ Carr to lead the way in 2025.
You’re only going to go as far as your quarterback takes you in football, but Notre Dame’s situation should set up pretty nicely for Carr to get settled.
He does have a baptism by fire out of the gates with Miami and Texas A&M as his first two opponents, but quarterbacking this roster is a pretty cozy gig.
Not only does Carr have arguably the most effective running back in the country, Jeremiyah Love, riding shotgun, but he will be protected by a terrific offensive line, and he’s got a strong receiving group to help him out.
There’s also the defense, which projects to be terrific once again.
Full credit to Marcus Freeman, who had this team well ahead of schedule in 2024. Notre Dame overcame a stunning upset against Nothern Illinois and a rash of injuries to get within one win of a national title.
While Notre Dame feels like a well-oiled machine, Miami doesn’t get the same benefit of the doubt.
The Hurricanes were electric out of the gates in 2024, but they squandered a 9-0 start with losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse, before falling to Iowa State in a bowl game.
There were a lot of reasons why the Hurricanes came apart, but a lot of the blame needs to land on Mario Cristobal, who seemingly costs his team at least one win a year with baffling in-game decisions.
Things will get tougher for Cristobal than they were in 2024, as Cam Ward is out of the picture after being drafted No. 1 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Beck could be a strong ACC quarterback, but he’s very unlikely to come close to reaching the heights that Ward hit in 2024, and he also has a tendency to make some strange decisions with the ball.
On his night, Beck can be superb. But he can also cost you dearly.
The Irish are getting some respect as a 2.5-point favorite on the road, but I think this number actually has room to grow. It’s a lot to ask of Carr to lead the Irish to a win in a hostile environment, but he has plenty of safety nets, and a coaching staff that always seems to have a steady hand in tricky spots.
The Play: Notre Dame -2.5 (bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.