We’ve already seen our fair share of chaos in this year’s Big Ten Tournament, with Ohio State playing spoiler in the first two days and Purdue getting all it can handle from upstart Rutgers in Friday’s slate.
We’ve got our eyes on a close matchup on the other side of the bracket, with Penn State taking on “host” Northwestern in Chicago in a critical game for both teams’ NCAA Tournament ambitions.
Here’s how we’re betting Friday’s contest, which tips off at 6:30 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
I absolutely love this Penn State team’s profile as a potential tournament spoiler in the coming weeks, and I’m riding with the Nittany Lions to keep rolling in the Big Ten tourney, too.
Just a few weeks ago, Penn State had lost four straight games and was staring down the reality of another missed NCAA Tournament bid.
Then this group ripped off a 6-1 run, which included an overtime win over Northwestern on March 1 and a narrow win over Illinois on Thursday to keep its season alive.
The Wildcats, on the other hand, have run into some trouble over the last few weeks, losing three of four entering Friday’s conference tournament opener.
Northwestern’s offense has struggled to find any consistency from the floor, but its defense – which ranks in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency – has been exploited from long range as of late, as has been the case all season long.
That’s a serious issue against Penn State, which is one of the most trigger-happy teams in the country from deep.
The Nittany Lions rank seventh in the country in 3-point percentage (38.9%) and 3-point rate (47.9%), and they boast the nation’s fourth-lowest turnover rate (13.5%) – a crucial stat against Northwestern, which paced the Big Ten in forced turnover rate (20.3%) and steal rate (11.9%).
If the Wildcats can’t force turnovers at a consistent rate on Friday, I’m skeptical of their ability to chase Penn State off the 3-point line, which has been an issue for Northwestern’s defense in just about every one of this team’s losses.
The Nittany Lions rained down 13 triples in their 68-65 win earlier this month, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar outcome in this one.