This year’s NIT has been fun.
Specifically, Seton Hall and Indiana State have made this year’s NIT fun.
Both squads are trying to prove to the committee that leaving them out of the field of 68 was the wrong move.
The Pirates and Sycamores have proven themselves correct.
These are two excellent basketball teams.
The Sycamores are laying 2.5 points in the championship game and I don’t think that’s enough.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seton Hall | +2.5 (-102) | +128 | o159.5 (-115) |
| Indiana State | -2.5 (-120) | -154 | u159.5 (-105) |
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
It’ll be too bad if Josh Schertz moves on after this season, given he’s built an analytical darling in Terre Haute.
The Sycamores run an elite spread rim-and-3 offense, leveraging Robbie Avila’s gravity and playmaking to either score in the screen-and-roll or dish the ball out to a bevy of sharpshooters and cutters.
As a result, the Sycamores rank first nationally in rim-and-3 rate and 12th in rim-and-3 PPP. They shoot 63% from inside the arc and 38% from beyond, with a top-six 3-point rate nationally.
Shaheen Halloway has built a tremendous defensive team at his alma mater, but the Pirates are a compact rim-denial defense that happily allows 3-point attempts.
Seton Hall ranks 322nd nationally in 3-point rate allowed and 136th in open 3 rate allowed.
That won’t play against Indiana State, which should spread the floor and relentlessly shoot over the top.
On the other end of the court, shooting over the top is the best way to beat Indiana State.
The Sycamores are an athletic, rock-solid ball-screen, cutting and rim defense, but Avila is vulnerable when forced to defend toward the perimeter.
As a result, they rank sub-300th nationally in defensive spacing.
But Seton Hall is unwilling and unable to beat you from the perimeter, ranking 314th nationally in 3-point rate and 195th in 3-point shooting (33%).
Seton Hall should create offense with Khadary Richmond’s dribble penetration and Dre Davis’ interior foul-drawing ability.
The Sycamores funnel opposing offenses into ball screens and struggle to defend those, so the Pirates should feast there.
But Seton Hall is also uber-reliant on second-chance opportunities, which you can’t get against Indiana State. The Sycamores rank seventh nationally in defensive rebounding rate and top 50 in second-chance points per game allowed.
Ultimately, I like how the Sycamores match up in the NIT championship game.
I also can’t discount Seton Hall’s potential health issues. The Pirates were dealing with locker room flu, and sixth-man Isaiah Coleman stayed home for the past two tournament games.
Bet: Indiana State -2.5 (-120) | Play to -4 (-110)