Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley remains within touching distance of Donald Trump in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary, according to a new poll that shows her trailing by just four percentage points thanks to strong support from independent voters.
The 77-year-old 45th president received 37% support in the 600-person likely voter survey by American Research Group — closely followed by Haley, 51, at 33%.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie placed third with 10% support and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis scored a distant fourth place with just 5% backing.
The poll found Trump solidly ahead among registered Republicans — getting 42% in that demographic to Haley’s 31% — while Haley leads Trump among “undeclared” voters who intend to vote in the GOP contest, 36% to 29%.
Under New Hampshire election rules, undeclared voters can choose on voting day whether to participate in the Democratic or Republican primary.
The poll, conducted Dec. 27-Jan. 3, assumes that roughly 37% of GOP primary voters won’t be registered Republicans — close to the estimated 36% figure from 2016.
The results suggest actual turnout among independents may be pivotal in the outcome of the Jan. 23 primary.
The Democratic primary in New Hampshire, held the same day, will not feature President Biden on the ballot due to the 81-year-old president’s insistence that the state cede its first-in-the-nation status to South Carolina, as called for by the Democratic National Committee.
Voters can still write in Biden’s name, and powerful Granite State Democrats have launched a campaign to ensure that happens in order to prevent an embarrassing triumph for a long-shot rival, such as spiritual consultant and self-help author Marianne Williamson or Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.).
The American Research Group poll shows a closer race among Republicans than other recent polls of New Hampshire, though the RealClearPolitics average does show the contest tightening.
New Hampshire voters will cast their ballots eight days after the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, where the results often create momentum for candidates.
Trump is leading in Iowa by an average of 32.7% in polls over second-place DeSantis, according to RCP.
The Trump and Haley campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment.