The New York Islanders and New York Rangers will meet for the first time this season on Sunday afternoon (3 p.m. ET) as part of the NHL’s Stadium Series at MetLife Stadium.
The Rangers are a -152 favorite at the time of writing.
The Islanders and Rangers come into this game in very different form.
While the Rangers have won six on the spin (including five in a row since the all-star break) to gain some separation in the race to win the Metropolitan Division title, the Isles have lost two straight and are in desperate need of points to keep pace in the playoff hunt.
What’s plaguing the Islanders at the moment is a lack of scoring depth.
Patrick Roy is getting strong performances from Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson and Kyle Palmieri, but the middle of the lineup is not contributing enough to make the Islanders’ defensive improvements under their new coach count.
The Isles are 3-3-2 since Roy took over, but they’ve vastly improved defensively at 5-on-5.
The Islanders are allowing 10 fewer shot attempts, 0.7 less expected goals and three fewer high-danger chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 under Roy than they were under Lane Lambert.
It’s still a small sample size, but it’s clear that the Islanders have taken a step forward defensively under their new bench boss.
For the Rangers, it’s been more of the same lately.
The Blueshirts are still a breakeven team at 5-on-5 but they know they can rely on their elite skill, power play and goaltending to be the difference in tightly played contests.
It’s been this team’s MO for a number of seasons now and shouldn’t surprise anybody to see that the Rangers are outpacing their expected goals once again.
In terms of the moneyline, this price looks about right.
The Rangers are the better team, but the Islanders’ defensive play under Roy and their elite goaltender means that bookmakers can’t slap a bigger price on the Isles, even if they’ve been pedestrian this season.
Instead of backing either side on the two-way moneyline, I’ll take a shot on a bigger price and bet on this contest to go to overtime at +340.
The Bet: 60-minute draw (+340, FanDuel)