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NY Post
New York Post
17 Apr 2023


NextImg:NHL playoff predictions: First-round winners, MVP, Conn Smythe pick

The first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the most wonderful time of the year for hockey fans and bettors.

Round 1 always promises some chaos, and there’s always a shocker, meaning there’s plenty of value to be found on the betting board.

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Let’s break it down:

Edmonton Oilers -1.5 Games (-120, Caesars)

The Oilers will go into the Stanley Cup Playoffs as basically a co-favorite with the Colorado Avalanche, and for good reason.

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The Oilers are 18-2-1 since trading for Mattias Ekholm and will go into the tournament riding a 15-game point streak.

Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid looks to lead the Oilers
NHLI via Getty Images

With Connor McDavid rewriting the record books and the team finally getting solid goaltending, the Oilers could make quick work of the Kings, who have a couple of key players banged up after an impressive regular season.

New York Islanders (+175, Caesars)

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The Islanders and Winnipeg Jets are two trendy underdogs in Round 1 for the same reason: They both have a big edge in goal.

The New York Islanders are built for the playoffs.

The New York Islanders are built for the playoffs.
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Since the Isles are the bigger price compared to the Jets, we’ll go with them.

With Ilya Sorokin in net, the Isles figure to have a puncher’s chance against any team in a best-of-seven series, but that advantage becomes more pronounced when you consider the Hurricanes share similar weaknesses compared to the Islanders.

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Like the Isles, the Hurricanes struggle to score consistently, and that problem has reared its head since the team lost first-line winger Andrei Svechnikov in March.

Carolina has gone 9-8-1 with a -2 goal difference since losing Svechnikov.

The margins for this series figure to be razor-thin, so there is some value on the Islanders — thanks to Sorokin — at a decent price.

Calle Jarnkrok #19 of the Toronto Maple Leafs

Calle Jarnkrok #19 of the Toronto Maple Leafs
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Calle Jarnkrok most goals in series (46/1, FanDuel)

Jarnkrok has settled into a spot in the top-six for the Toronto Maple Leafs, so he’ll spend a lot of time playing with the likes of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

It’s one of the cushiest gigs in the NHL and gives Jarnkrok a legitimate chance to get hot enough to lead a star-studded series in scoring.

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Ondrej Palat most goals (55/1, DraftKings)

There is so much talent in this series that there was bound to be a player that flies under the radar in this market and Palat fits the bill.

While most of the attention in this market will go to players like Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Jack Hughes and Timo Meier, they’re all being offered at much shorter odds than Palat, who has scored 11 goals in two of the last three postseasons for the Bolts.

Additionally, Palat should get ample playing time in a top-six that is loaded with star power.

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Ondrej Palat

Ondrej Palat has become a difference-maker in New Jersey
NHLI via Getty Images

Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins (30/1, Caesars)

The Bruins are the clear favorites to win it all, and Bergeron is their unquestioned leader.

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There’s also a chance that this is Bergeron’s last season, and should the B’s win it all, seeing their beloved captain get handed the Stanley Cup to skate off into the sunset would be quite the fairytale moment.

It would almost be impossible for writers who vote on the Conn Smythe to ignore the storyline.

There are plenty of Bruins who could put up the production to win the Conn Smythe if the B’s do win the Cup.

But Bergeron is known as a two-way force, so he doesn’t necessarily need to set the world on fire to be a justifiable pick in this market.