Favorites are a wagon in the NFL right now.
Week 2 saw more of the same from the favorites, as favorites of at least four points improved to 12-0 straight up (SU) this season.
Week 3 features some more solid matchups to pick apart for your pick’em or Survivor pool.
Last week, more than 85 percent of the contestants in the Las Vegas-based Circa Sportsbook survivor contest made it through.
Nineteen percent of Circa entries had the Cowboys against the Giants and they should be singing kicker Brandon Aubrey’s praises that they weren’t given the boot from survivor pools.
This week poses even more lopsided matchups than last week.
| Confiidence Rank | Game/Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Bills vs. Dolphins |
| 2 | Packers @ Browns |
| 3 | Seahawks vs. Saints |
| 4 | Buccaneers vs. Jets |
| 5 | Chiefs @ Giants |
| 6 | Ravens vs. Lions |
| 7 | Colts @ Titans |
| 8 | Falcons @ Panthers |
| 9 | Vikings vs. Bengals |
| 10 | Chargers vs. Broncos |
| 11 | 49ers vs. Cardinals |
| 12 | Commanders vs. Raiders |
| 13 | Bears vs. Cowboys |
| 14 | Steelers @ Patriots |
| 15 | Eagles vs. Rams |
| 16 | Jaguars vs. Texans |
By far the biggest favorite of the week, many will attempt to avoid playing the Bills here on a short week in this “Thursday Night Football” matchup.
The Bills just embarrassed the Jets on the road and now host the Dolphins, whom they have beaten nine times in their last 10 matchups.
That’s even more startling when you consider the Dolphins have actually been solid in recent years and even a playoff team.
I suspect even though many will try to get by this week without using the Bills, that 30 percent of entries will be used on Buffalo in the big Circa pool.
Even as a Joe Flacco supporter, it is difficult to get behind the Browns at this point. Last week, Flacco threw for under 200 yards and seriously struggled to get the ball to his receivers.
The Ravens’ defense isn’t a world-beating unit at this point, but the Packers sure are.
The addition of Micah Parsons, as well as a healthy Rashan Gary, has given the Packers a defense that flies around all over the field.
Cleveland certainly has a tough spot, even at home, against Green Bay.
Here’s your punt play.
The Saints have quietly played pretty well, losing both games by one score.
Spencer Rattler, whom I continue to be a fan of, is completing passes at a 65 percent clip with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Seahawks, though, just beat a Steelers team that we are pretty sure is half-decent.
At least 15 percent of entries will have the Seahawks.
This is your “hang onto your marbles” choice for Week 3. Good luck to those who partake.
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.