Back for Season 32 in The Post’s NFL Bettor’s Guide. How long ago is that? Just two current Jets (Tyrod Taylor and Nick Folk) were born when this space’s first selections came roaring off the presses at 210 South Street.
We went 4-10 against the spread (yes, there were just 28 teams in the NFL back then) that first week and followed that up with another 4-10. By Week 3, the legendary Hondo was ordering up embarrassing Photoshops of this handicapper to run with his column.
The picks would get better, reaching .500 by the end of the 1994 season. Over the decades, we’ve won a handful of regular-season and playoff championships here in the Post standings, and last year predicted the exact Super Bowl outcome (Eagles over Chiefs) in the season preview issue in September.
As Aaron Glenn readies to begin his career as Jets coach, it’s fun to remember that he was making his NFL debut at cornerback on Sept. 4, 1994. It was the first and only season opener for Pete Carroll, and the Jets won 23-3 over the Bills at Orchard Park.
Throughout this column’s existence, four men have led the Jets to the playoffs during their tenures, and they had a cumulative 3-1 record in their first games in green and white.
Will Glenn be able to put the Jets on that track, or will they end up in the depot of disaster like teams coached by Rich Kotite, Adam Gase and others?
We’ll begin to find out on Sunday at MetLife Stadium against the Steelers. They are quarterbacked, of course, by ex-Jet Aaron Rodgers, who was 10 years old on our Opening Day in 1994.
It’s a tough call because Glenn and these Jets are somewhat of an unknown quantity. Maybe new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand will make instant magic with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. They were trying to develop a ground-and-pound identity this summer, but that took a hit when Alijah Vera-Tucker went down. Though Justin Fields will add a new dimension with his legs, he has been an inaccurate passer throughout camp.
The Steelers have a top five defense with T.J. Watt on the other side, and a coach in Mike Tomlin who has 311 games (regular and postseason) on his résumé.
Tough task for Gang Glenn.
The pick: Steelers -3.
In 2024, Washington posted its most wins (12) since 1991, and the Giants had arguably the worst season in their 100-year history. Still, the Commanders’ two head-to-head victories came by just three and five points. In Week 2, Washington managed seven field goals and the margin was a Giants missed PAT kick and two failed 2-point conversions due to an injured kicker.
Looking for some Washington regression this season combined with a marginally better Giants offense, as Russell Wilson’s experience and deep throwing ability opens the field for Brian Daboll. We’ll put that theory to the test by taking these points.
The Chiefs under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have been a frustrating bet as favorites, but they were 5-1 ATS last season when the spread was -3.5 or smaller. Last year’s Eagles-Packers game at Corinthians Stadium saw 63 points on a slippery field, which would figure to make it hard for the Chargers to stay with the lightning-quick Chiefs.
It will be hard for Baker Mayfield to improve upon his 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes, particularly if OT Tristan Wirfs and WR Chris Godwin Jr. are out. Vita Vea’s potential absence from the defensive line would be a problem against Bijan Robinson.
Saints are the largest home underdogs on the board in Week 1, and as much as I’d like to grab those points, I can’t justify backing them with Spencer Rattler. They were 0-7 in games he played last season, losing by an average of 17.5 points.
Debuts for Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel. New England could be without top CB Christian Gonzalez, which would help a Raiders offense that has added Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty and Amari Cooper to Brock Bowers.
Came into the week hoping to avoid picking road favorites, but here goes another. Bengals won and covered both games against the Browns last season, and if Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are going to fulfill my MVP and Offensive POY predictions, the big numbers should start here.
First game for new Jaguars coach Liam Coen, who has the better quarterback in this matchup in Trevor Lawrence and adds Travis Hunter to the mix. Panthers No. 1 pick Tetairoa McMillan is dealing with a hamstring injury, and the team lists three offensive linemen as questionable or worse.
Last year, the Giants suffered the weekly embarrassment of watching Saquon Barkley star for the Eagles. Now Daniel Jones has a chance to win some games with the Colts. Close call here, but top Dolphins weapons Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane have had some injury issues.
Biggest spread of the week, and I’d rather be taking the points, but I can’t get there on a 3-14 team with rookie QB Cam Ward. Not at a place like Mile High against a team Sean Payton turned around quickly.
Willing to take a shot with Sam Darnold at his new home in Seattle. Seahawks traded DK Metcalf to the Steelers but added Cooper Kupp to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III. Niners are down some weapons with Deebo Samuel in Washington and Brandon Aiyuk injured.
Interesting to see if the Lions skip a beat with new offensive and defensive coordinators. Happy to take a few points here to find out, particularly with new Packers star Micah Parsons dealing with a back injury.
Matthew Stafford made it to the starting line, but his back may not feel so good after three hours against Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and friends. Expecting a tight one, and even this small spread could be the difference.
First Sunday nighter should be the game of the week, with the Ravens out to avenge last year’s playoff loss to the Bills. Lamar Jackson appears to have more to work with than Josh Allen does this time around.
New Bears coach Ben Johnson certainly has a lot of fun toys to play with, surrounding QB Caleb Williams with WRs DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and TEs Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet. Tough situation for first-time Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy, with Justin Jefferson dealing with a hamstring and Jordan Addison suspended.
Best bets: Bears, Falcons, Ravens.
Lock of the week: Bears (Locks 11-11 in 2024).
Thursday: Cowboys.