We have two weeks of NFL in the books, so at the very least, we should know these teams a little better than we did at the start of the season.
There have been a few surprise teams, both in the positive and in the negative.
As always, I have scoured the PrizePicks lobby and have come up with my four favorite picks for Week 3. Let’s get right into it.
You know what’s great about this projection?
We don’t have to worry about whether or not Watson plays well.
He struggled mightily in his six starts last season and hasn’t looked much better in his first two starts this season.
However, he threw the ball 29 times in a blowout win over the Bengals in Week 1 and then 40 times in a close game against the Steelers in Week 2.
The volume has been there and this week he faces the biggest pass-funnel defense in the NFL.
The Titans are absolutely dominant against the run (fourth in EPA) and have one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
This should naturally lead to a more pass-heavy game plan for the Browns and don’t forget, this will be their first full game without Nick Chubb.
To be honest, I am going to be taking the more than side of most of Robinson’s projections this week.
The Falcons have no interest in throwing the football.
In case he didn’t make it clear, Arthur Smith does not care about your fantasy football team.
The Falcons lead the league in rush rate and even though Tyler Allgeier is still getting a lot of work, we have to love the usage for Robinson.
In the first two games, he has averaged 14.5 rushing attempts and 90 rushing yards.
He’s also been a big part of the passing game, so I don’t mind looking at his rushing + receiving yard projection as well.
This week he draws an exploitable matchup against the Lions in a dome.
This has been one of my go-to projections on PrizePicks over the last two seasons, so I love that he’s available again this week.
We know the Chargers are going to move the ball up and down the field. They have an elite offense and an elite quarterback.
However, they are the Chargers and always find a way to have drives stall out.
Dicker has made at least two field goals in five of his last six games and in seven of his last nine games dating back to last season.
It doesn’t hurt that the Chargers are playing in a dome against the Vikings, who have a bottom-five defense in the NFL this season.
It’s been a brutal start for Jacobs and the Raiders rushing attack. Through the first two games, he has 28 carries for 46 yards.
He finished last week’s game against the Bills with negative rushing yards.
While that’s not exactly encouraging, the Raiders now have their home opener on Sunday night against the Steelers.
We think of Pittsburgh as having a premier defense, but they are 31st in EPA against the run and dead last in yards allowed after contact.
They have not been able to tackle running backs this season and could be without Minkah Fitzpatrick.
While the efficiency hasn’t been there for Jacobs, he has no competition for touches and has quietly racked up an 18% target share through the first two games.
Good luck!