We are back for Week 5 with another four selections for PrizePicks.
When I put together the four-player PrizePicks entries, I generally like to split the entry fee between the “Flex Play” and the “Power Play.”
This still gives the upside of a potential 10x, but also returns something in the case where only three of the four picks end up being correct. Let’s dive into my favorite picks for Week 5.
I was debating between Robinson’s rushing projection (79.5 yards) and his touchdown projection.
I chose the latter because I’m not exactly sure how this game is going to play out.
The Texans have been in much better form than the Falcons, but the game is in Atlanta and the matchup sets up well for the ground game.
Robinson’s snap share has increased every week (61% last week) and he has a 19% target share in the passing game. He’s going to be heavily involved regardless of the game script.
He’s listed in the -120 to -130 range for an anytime touchdown on most sportsbooks, so there’s value in this projection already.
On top of that, we get the potential of Stroud running a touchdown in as well.
We haven’t exactly seen the Chiefs dominate a game with their passing attack, but Mahomes has some misleading numbers through the first four games.
There were three key drops in Week 1 that hurt his yardage total and he left the game against the Bears early due to a blowout and an ankle injury.
This week he squares off against the Vikings in what should be a competitive game.
This projects to be one of the fastest-paced games of the week and the Vikings have not been good against the pass – 20th in DVOA, 17th in EPA and 21st in pressure rate.
The two models that I trust the most (RotoGrinders and the BLITZ) have him projected for well over 300 yards in this one.
Chase is clearly frustrated with the state of the Bengals offense and he wasn’t afraid to share his opinion after their loss against the Titans.
He has the squeaky wheel narrative working for him and also could see an uptick in target share with Tee Higgins nursing an injury.
He has a fractured rib and is looking very iffy to play against the Cardinals.
While I don’t want to trust Joe Burrow at the moment, the Bengals are playing indoors against a team that does not get much pressure on the quarterback.
This is a good spot for their passing attack to get going and that starts with getting Chase the ball.
I have been hesitant to trust the Cardinals this season, but they have played great through the first four games.
The advanced statistics all support this surprising start, so perhaps I should start believing in them.
They should be able to have success on the ground against the Bengals, who are ranked in the bottom six in both rush DVOA and rush EPA.
Conner has averaged 15.5 carries per game and has been surprisingly efficient on the ground (5.1 yards per carry). If this game stays competitive (it should with a 3-point spread), Conner should see 15+ carries once again.