Welcome back to another breakdown of the PrizePicks board.
The MLB regular season has wrapped up and the field is set for the playoffs. We get a day off before the wild-card series, so there are no MLB games Monday.
Luckily, we have a “Monday Night Football” showdown between the New York Giants and the Seattle Seahawks to keep us occupied.
Let’s take a look at some of the projections I am targeting.
Metcalf is off the injury report for the first time since taking a shot to the ribs in the first half of Seattle’s Week 2 matchup with the Lions.
Despite leaving that game for a bit to get his ribs checked out, Metcalf still finished with 75 receiving yards against Detroit.
Last week, he torched the Panthers for 112 receiving yards on six catches.
He is putting up production despite earning a career-low 19.8% target share so far this season.
Missing some time due to injury in Week 2 played a part in that lower target share, and I expect Metcalf to be back to the mid-20 percent range as soon as this week now that he is fully healthy.
He has an outstanding matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 31st in DVOA. They have allowed at least 28 points in all three games so far this season.
Smith-Njigba caught at least three balls in each of the first two games this season, but he logged just one catch last week against the Panthers. He also saw his snap share fall to a concerning 44%.
I think the Seahawks will look to get the 20th overall pick from this year’s draft much more involved this week.
JSN has generally operated in the short areas of the field, and should be able to convert a high percentage of the targets he earns. As noted with Metcalf above, the matchup here is excellent.
The Seahawks have too much invested in Smith-Njigba for him not to be a critical part of the offense.
The Giants offense has been nearly non-existent in two of their three games this season, but the games they struggled were very difficult matchups against the 49ers‘ and Cowboys‘ elite defenses.
Waller has received at least five targets in all three games so far this season. He has not done much with them, but we can give a pass for that due to matchups.
In his only plus matchup this season, he torched Arizona for 76 yards on eight catches.
He gets another solid matchup here against the Seahawks, who have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league entering Week 4.
Saquon Barkley is doubtful to play in this game and Breida should operate as the lead running back for the second consecutive game.
He functioned as the lead back last week, playing on 80.4 percent of the snaps. Despite his hefty playing time, he saw almost no involvement in the rushing attack and carried the ball just four times.
The game against the 49ers got out of hand quickly and game script definitely played a role in his diminished usage. Even if this game is much more competitive (as it is expected to be) I don’t see Breida with any type of workhorse role.
Further complicating the spot for Breida, the Giants star left tackle, Andrew Thomas, has been ruled out for this game.
The Seahawks have actually been solid against the run through the first three weeks of the season. They have allowed just 79.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks sixth-best in the league, and their 2.94 yards per carry allowed is the third-best in the league.
Gary Brightwell should be in the mix as well, and I see Breida finishing with something like 10-12 carries.
He would need to average over 4.0 yards per carry to surpass this projection if that is in fact where his volume settles in.