It’s easy to overreact to Week 1. In fact, it’s quite common in NFL betting. 

No game better encapsulates that in Week 2 than the “Sunday Night Football” matchup, in which the Dolphins head to Foxborough, Mass., in an AFC East showdown with the Patriots. 

Think back to a week ago, when Miami opened the season at the Chargers, lit up the scoreboard and racked up more than 500 yards of offense in a win.

The Patriots? They lost their season opener behind five turnovers — three on downs — against an Eagles team that has looked shaky through two weeks. 

Yet the Dolphins are just 3-point favorites? If the line seems fishy, that’s because it is.

Las Vegas is baiting the public to hop aboard Miami, and it’s easy to see why. 

Though I do think the Patriots catching a field goal is a great look and Bill Belichick’s squad is more than live to win this game outright, my favorite bet follows a similar script in which New England keeps it close.

And that’s targeting running back Rhamondre Stevenson to go over 50.5 rushing yards in a bounce-back game. 

These are two contrasting identities.

The Dolphins love to run and gun while the Patriots like to slow the game down and grind it out.

It’s no secret Miami’s high-octane offense is capable of dangerous things, but its defense really struggled in the season opener. 

The Chargers’ Austin Ekeler rushed for 117 yards and Joshua Kelley added 91.

The duo combined for 208 yards on just 32 carries, or 6.5 yards per rush. 

It’s easy to think that Week 2 can lead to another sped-up game in which Miami jumps out to an early lead and forces New England to drop back, similar to Week 1.

But that’s not Belichick’s MO, and the Patriots’ defense should be able to slow down the Dolphins. 

On the offensive end, they’ll likely look to burn clock behind Stevenson. 

Ezekiel Elliott did join the backfield and had seven carries in Week 1, but he was outsnapped by Stevenson, 58-28.

It was a trailing game script from the start — the Eagles jumped ahead 16-0 thanks to a pick-six and Elliott’s fumble on the Patriots’ own 26 — so Stevenson never got going against a dominant Philadelphia defensive line (12 carries, 25 yards). 

Even in a limited role in 2022, Stevenson was extremely effective, averaging 5 yards per carry and 1,000 total yards.

He has eclipsed 50 rushing yards in six of eight games in which he had 14-plus carries.

Though Elliott will still receive carries, this is Stevenson’s backfield. 

Our Luck Rankings over at Action Network have this game circled for plenty of reasons, mainly because of New England grading out as the unluckiest team in Week 1.

Tack on the fact that it’s a home game, and a divisional prime-time one at that, and we should see a juiced up Patriots team. 

And quite frankly, Stevenson is the most dynamic skill-position player on this roster.

New England is going to run the offense through him and look to control the game on the ground.

Until Miami shows me otherwise, I’ll be looking to fade them in the trenches. 

Can this game turn into a shootout? Definitely.

Even in a shootout last week, the Chargers’ backs were able to combine for 200 yards versus the Dolphins.

They broke 10-plus-yard rushes five separate times. 

Back Stevenson to make a splash and clear this 50.5 number in a perfect bounce-back spot, both for the third-year RB and the Patriots (+2.5).