The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 4 slate.
If it weren’t for bad luck, we’d have no luck at all.
It’s easy to look at this game with rose colored glasses, but let’s keep it in perspective: The Giants only brought in a rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterbacks making mid-season first starts went 26-31-1 ATS according to relevant data from 2009-2018. It’s an incredibly tough spot for Big Blue and Jaxson Dart. My model predicts this game’s score to be between 27.83 and 16.97. Big edge to Los Angeles.
We knew that Carson Wentz would be a godsend for the Vikings, but a 48-10 shellacking surprised even the staunchest of Vikings supporters. This is far from my favorite game to target on the slate, but this is another spot to trust my model. Pittsburgh’s defense has underperformed, so I suspect some positive regression on top of the model having this spread much closer, with the projected score at 19.88 to 19.57.
Injuries galore in this matchup. My model has the Eagles as four-point favorites, but the Buccaneers profile as a solid matchup here. For starters, their run defense has been pristine as the fourth-best unit in yards per carry allowed. They should be able to slow down the Eagles’ run game and make this a close one-possession game.
I’m 1-2 backing the Saints ATS, so call me a fool if you must for taking them again here. My model has this spread at 10 points, giving me a 7.35 percent edge. Spencer Rattler should be able to hold this one tight in Buffalo.
Michael Penix Jr. was a disaster last week, but so was the Commanders’ defense. In a revenge game for Marcus Mariota, I’ll take the Falcons here as the Commanders lowkey nearly blew that lead to the Raiders. Very quietly, the Falcons have the eighth-ranked defense in DVOA.
Two teams that are riding high with upset wins. Cleveland’s offense just isn’t good enough here as the Joe Flacco-led group has just 4.4 yards per play this year, 29th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Lions are tied for the second-best at 6.3. Detroit runs away with this one as Cleveland just can’t keep up.
Cam Ward has to win at some point, but it’s not only his fault that they aren’t playing well. The Titans’ defense is flat bad, and that starts at the line of scrimmage. Tennessee is 25th in pass rush win rate and 21st in run stop win rate. Perhaps the Texans get in their own way throughout the weekend, but I won’t be betting on that as the Titans look awful.
Both of these teams turned some heads last week. The Panthers shut out the Falcons in a blowout win, while the Patriots fumbled the game away five times against the Steelers. New England clears things up as the Panthers are the third-worst in yards per play, while the Patriots are the third-best in yards per carry allowed.
The 49ers are getting healthier, but the Jaguars have the fourth-best defense in terms of DVOA. Eventually, they will figure out how to correctly utilize Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. I’ll take the Jags to score a road upset.
Los Angeles royally screwed up last week, but I’m still bullish on them overall. Star cornerback Kenny Moore II is out for this matchup, while Davante Adams is expected to play. The Colts are a well-oiled machine, but the Rams are the only team in football that is top 10 in both yards per play and yards per play allowed.
The Bears’ offense turned a corner last week, and after what we saw the Raiders allow to Marcus Mariota, there’s no reason to think the Bears don’t put it on Las Vegas this weekend. Chicago is ninth-best in yards per play (5.7) while the Raiders are fourth-worst in yards per play allowed. I’ll bite the bullet on the bad Bears defense with the theory that Geno Smith isn’t panning out in Las Vegas.
The game of the week. My model has this game dead-on against the spread, although the Chiefs are now getting back Xavier Worthy for this game. The Ravens’ secondary has looked awful, and if not for a Travis Kelce drop in the endzone, the Chiefs likely would have won against Philadelphia. Chiefs win outright.
Revenge is on their mind. The Cowboys’ defense is a nightmare, and that’s music to Jordan Love’s ears as he looks to show he can air it out. My model has the spread at 6.5, but I’ll still back Green Bay as Micah Parsons returns to Jerry World. Dallas is allowing 6.5 yards per play, second-worst.
Justin Fields gets an extra day to clear concussion protocol, and I’ll take a shot that he ends up playing. My model projects that this is a low-scoring affair with the Jets 19.10 to Dolphins 19.76. The 2.5 spread is looking valuable if you take that into account.
Jake Browning in Denver screams nightmare. The Broncos are the ninth-best in yards per play allowed, while the Bengals are 20th. Denver runs the ball down the Bengals’ throats and wins big on Monday night’s doubleheader.
LAST WEEK: 4-12
This season: 14-29
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.