Just four days away from the NFL season, it’s flag-planting time.
Sifting through who you are bullish and bearish on isn’t just something for Wall Street suits; it’s for the NFL bettors out there as well.
Some teams and coaches are constantly undervalued in this market, but it’s actually the best teams in the NFL to be most wary of.
Teams with double-digit projected win totals exceed their total only 43.6 percent of the time since 1990 (per Action Network).
Below, we dive into some of those interesting trends and much more.
Big Blue received a gift in the form of a stud pass rusher that I project will win Defensive Rookie of the Year, Abdul Carter.
The Jaguars decided to go the Travis Hunter route, giving the Giants the best player in this year’s draft.
He, on top of Jaxson Dart, who has looked phenomenal in preseason action, has the Giants trending in the right direction to start 2025.
The defense should be much improved, and stable quarterback play is the key to offensive success.
The Giants won just three games last year and are projected to improve by 2.5 wins.
Since 2002, teams projected to improve by at least one victory from the previous season have gone over their win total 53.4 percent of the time, per ESPN.
Losing both of your coordinators is a nightmare for the Detroit Lions, who also said goodbye to stud center Frank Ragnow.
I’ve always enjoyed Dan Campbell’s willingness to go for it on fourth down, but the 66.67 percent success rate is unlikely to bear many fruits in 2025.
Losing Ben Johnson as your play caller and schemer is one thing, but the offensive line is going to take a step back as well.
That spells bad news for stuck-in-his-ways Campbell.
Let’s also not forget, Jared Goff is their quarterback and he is completely immobile.
I’m not in the Jared Goff business, and therefore, I’m not in the Lions business, either.
Jayden Daniels took the league by storm in 2024, but good luck to Washington repeating its NFL-record 87 percent fourth-down conversion rate.
Daniels is a stellar player, but I worry about his workload. He had to be superhuman to push Washington to extraordinary heights in 2024.
The front office did an ok job building the rest of the roster, but their 5-1 record in games decided by a field goal or less screams regression.
There were just a lot of fortunate breaks last year, and even with more talent, they are unlikely to stay that healthy this year.
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.