The Panthers’ decision to fire Frank Reich only 11 games into a four-year contract was unfair.
It disrespected an NFL lifer with a winning track record — 40-33-1 over five seasons coaching the Colts, after winning a Super Bowl as an assistant with the Eagles and orchestrating the biggest playoff comeback ever as a backup quarterback for the Bills.
It made meddlesome owner David Tepper look like a petulant over-reactor to the early signs that the Panthers took the wrong quarterback atop the 2023 draft.
It set back rookie quarterback Bryce Young’s development by making him learn two (or three, depending on the amount of changes implemented by the interim staff) playbooks in his first two years.
It spoke to the contradiction of rebuilding in a league where patience has never been thinner.
“I don’t know any coach who has a five-year plan,” one former NFL head coach said. “You better have a two-year plan or you are going to be out of a job in three years.”
And yet…what if it was the right move?
All of the above can be true at the same time that it’s true the Panthers made the right call ending a tenure that was headed nowhere, especially if Reich was stuck coaching Young when when a popular theory among NFL observers holds that he preferred to draft C.J. Stroud, the bigger quarterback more in Reich’s own image and the image of other quarterbacks he has coached.
“It sounded like Frank was forcing his way out a couple weeks ago when he detailed in press conferences how involved the owner was,” one NFL source told Post Sports+. “Frank can’t hide it when he’s unhappy, and taking back the play-calling after initially giving it up was his way of saying, ‘I’m going out my way.’”
Since 2016, there have been seven other instances of an NFL head coach lasting one season or less. More often than not, pulling the plug early has led to quick improvement:
• The 49ers fired Chip Kelly (2-14) and hired Kyle Shanahan (6-10 debut, 60-49 overall with three playoff appearances).
• The Cardinals fired Steve Wilks (3-13) and hired Kliff Kingsbury (5-10-1 debut, 28-37-1 with one playoff appearance before he was fired).
• The Browns fired Freddie Kitchens (6-10) and hired Kevin Stefanski (11-5 debut, 33-28 overall with one playoff appearance).
• The Jaguars fired Urban Meyer (2-11) and hired Doug Pederson (9-8 debut, 17-11 overall with one playoff appearance).
• The Texans fired David Culley (4-13) and hired Lovie Smith (3-13-1 before he was fired).
• The Texans fired Lovie Smith (3-13-1) and hired DeMeco Ryans (6-5 in his first season).
• The Broncos fired Nathaniel Hackett (4-11) and hired Sean Payton (6-5 in his first season).
The 49ers, Browns and Jaguars all definitively upgraded. The Texans (the second time) and the Broncos seem to be headed in the right direction midway through the first season of new regimes after both got off to rocky starts that made it seem like the problems ran deeper than the head coach.
Former Browns CEO Joe Banner was in a similar spot when he fired Rob Chudzinski after one season (2013) as head coach. He called trusted peers around the league before making a decision that shook up the organization after a 4-12 finish.
“I said, ‘I see you fired so-and-so after one year or two years or three years. When did you really know you had the wrong person?’” Banner once told me. “Every single one of them said, ‘I knew it after Year 1,’ or ‘I thought it after Year 1.’ My follow-up question was, ‘Why didn’t you make the move then? Why did you wait?’ The answer was, ‘Even though I thought I knew, I wasn’t sure and it didn’t seem fair to only give a guy one year.’
“My opinion was you hate to be in that situation because it means you screwed up and you are going to have a huge effect on the lives of a whole bunch of people, but you owe it to all of the players, employees and the owner to be doing everything you thought you could for all of them to reward their work.
“If you really felt you knew — just thinking it is different — then in the end you didn’t do the coach any favors because if it wasn’t going to work out, he might as well find his next opportunity and try to rebuild his career. You didn’t do the players any favors, or the people who live and die with every snap any favors. Almost everybody I talked to agreed that they should’ve done it in Year 1.”
Banner’s replacement choice, Mike Pettine, only lasted two seasons. And Banner left the organization before Pettine.
So, it’s no guarantee that the Panthers will get the next hire right. It simply means that they limited the amount of time in denial of a problem.
Unfair to Reich, Young and others? Absolutely. But that’s life in the No Fair League.
The Pro Football Hall of Fame just released a list of 25 modern-era semifinalists that will be narrowed down to 15 finalists before the panel of 49 voters inducts between four and eight members into the class of 2024. I don’t have a vote, but here is how I see the 25 candidates, separated into four tiers:
Put him in now (6): TE Antonio Gates, DE Julius Peppers, DE Jared Allen, WR Reggie Wayne, WR Torry Holt, KR/PR Devin Hester
First-time-eligible nominees Gates (No. 1 in career receiving touchdowns by a tight end) and Peppers (No. 4 in career sacks) should be no-brainers.
Holt (who led the NFL in receiving yards during the 2000s) and Wayne (No. 2 in career postseason receptions) are four-time finalists who would be a fitting pair to go in together since they were No. 2 options in two of the greatest passing attacks of all time.
Three-time finalist Allen is No. 12 in career sacks and one of five players with a 22-sack season since the stat became official in 1982. Hester made two All-Decade Teams (2000s and 2010s) with an NFL-record 20 career return touchdowns — never-to-be-surpassed as the NFL phases out kickoff returns.
Put him in soon (5): OT Willie Anderson, DE Dwight Freeney, WR Andre Johnson, WR Steve Smith Sr., S Darren Woodson
Anderson and Woodson — both three-time First-Team All-Pros — are left over from another era, having last played in 2003 and 2008, respectively. Woodson was arguably the best defensive player on the Cowboys’ last three Super Bowl-winning teams. Anderson is Pro Football Focus’ best run-blocker of the last two decades.
Freeney was a game-wrecker with his patented spin move, recording 10 or more sacks seven times and four or more forced fumbles eight times. He is No. 18 in career sacks and could be much higher if not for injuries plaguing the back half of his career.
Two of 14 players all-time with at least 1,000 catches, Smith and Johnson rank No. 8 and No. 11, respectively, in career receiving yards,
Put him in eventually (7): RB Tiki Barber, LB Patrick Willis, CB Eric Allen, WR Anquan Boldin, OG Jahri Evans, RB Fred Taylor, DE Robert Mathis
Two-time finalist Willis is more of a lock than first-time semifinalist Barber, but they belong together as part of a “would already be enshrined if they played longer” category. Willis was a five-time First-Team All-Pro in eight seasons. Barber’s 15,632 yards from scrimmage (No. 15 all-time) are the most for any eligible player not yet in the Hall of Fame.
Allen’s 54 career interceptions rank No. 21 all-time, and his 1993 season (six picks, four touchdowns) was one of the best by a cornerback. Boldin ranks No. 9 in receptions and No. 14 in yards, though he was largely overshadowed by bigger stars of his era.
The four-time First-Team All-Pro Evans was an All-Decade Team member for the 2010s. Taylor is No. 17 all-time in rushing and was the face of an expansion franchise. Mathis is No. 23 in sacks as the other half of a dominant duo with Freeney.
Great player who falls just short (7): LB London Fletcher, RB Eddie George, RB Ricky Watters, OLB James Harrison, S Rodney Harrison, WR Hines Ward, DT Vince Wilfork
James Harrison was the 2008 Defensive Player of the Year and one of the most feared players of his era, but his span of dominance was too short compared to others.
The toughest call was Ward, who compiled big numbers while being one of the best perimeter run-blockers, but the backlog of great receivers waiting for enshrinement is only growing over time.
There were few workhorses equal to George — eight straight seasons of 300-plus carries, including 403 in 2000 — but Watters actually is higher on the career rushing list (No. 17) and scored 91 touchdowns from scrimmage.
Fletcher is No. 2 all-time in career tackles and played in 256 straight games to end his career — not bad for an undrafted player.
Bill Belichick has stumped for Patriots greats Wilfork and Rodney Harrison, but not every All-Pro belongs in the Hall of Fame. That’s what a team’s Ring of Honor is for.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama, SEC Championship Game, Saturday 4 p.m. ET, CBS
Whenever these two schools meet, there is a chance that every starter on both sides is a future NFL draft pick. Each school produced 10 draft picks — tied for the most of any college — in 2023.
So, where should the focus be Saturday?
Alabama has three near-certain first-round picks — edge Dallas Turner, cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry and offensive tackle JC Latham — though all have slipped from consensus top-10 prospects early in the season to the second 10 of ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s most recent overall rankings.
McKinstry is a shutdown man-to-man press coverage cornerback, but he was benched after season-long struggles catching punts, which takes away some of his bonus value. Terrion Arnold, another cornerback, is rising up boards because of his length, breaks on the ball and run support.
Latham is a physically imposing tone-setter who oozes strength and power. He will finish a block into the dirt in the run game.
Turner is coming off a dominant 10-pressure, one-sack, 50 percent pass-rush win rate game against Auburn, according to Pro Football Focus, but he is not the same caliber of prospect that fellow bookend Will Anderson (No. 3 pick in 2023) was. Turner is playing opposite Chris Braswell, who has burst on the scene as a potential mid-round pick with eight sacks and alignment versatility.
The likely first-round picks for Georgia are tight end Brock Bowers, offensive tackle Amarius Mims and cornerback Kamari Lassiter.
Bowers has touchdowns in both games since returning from in-season ankle surgery. He is sure-handed and a run-after-the-catch nightmare, making tacklers miss or dragging them along for extra yards. He has a chance to be the best tight end prospect — ahead of 2022 No. 4 overall pick Kyle Pitts — in years.
Mims has just five career starts, but looks as if his 6-foot-7, 330-pound body were built in a lab. He is technically raw, but athletic and powerful.
Lassiter is an instinctual player who always seems to be around the ball, whether blowing up screens or breaking up sideline passes. There are questions about his vertical speed.
When Georgia has the ball, here’s a three-way chain to watch. Sedrick Van Pran snapping to quarterback Carson Beck, who is throwing to Ladd McConkey.
Van Pran uses his high football IQ to decipher defensive looks, Beck is working his way into the second-round conversation at quarterback — just like he comfortably works through reads in a crowded pocket — and McConkey is a slippery zone-beater and chains-mover.
USC quarterback Caleb Williams — the projected No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft — told the Los Angeles Times that whether he enters the draft or stays in school will be a “game-time decision.” Underclassmen have until Jan. 15 to declare.
It’s a smart move by Williams because by then the top of the NFL draft order will be decided and a full week of head coach firings will have happened. Williams will have a clearer picture of which team might draft him and who his head coach will (or won’t) be.
If Williams doesn’t like the option in front of him, his lucrative NIL financial compensation makes returning to school more feasible than it was for college players in decades gone by.
If he waits that long, however, it will play into the narrative that Williams and his family are power-brokers.
Whether or not he is seeking part-ownership of the franchise that drafts him, as was reported, doesn’t matter because it will never happen.
But what very well could happen is that Williams follows the path of Eli Manning and John Elway and refuses to play for the team with the No. 1 pick if he doesn’t like certain things about the situation.
He might as well wait to declare so that he has all the information available and more options for leverage — returning to school — if the situation doesn’t fit.
As it currently stands, Williams likely would end up with either the Bears or Cardinals — teams with one-time franchise quarterbacks in Justin Fields and Kyler Murray, respectively, who would need to be moved to make room for Williams — or with the Patriots, where he constantly would be compared to Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick’s future is uncertain.
Of the 15 teams who have allowed 62 points or more in a game during the 104 seasons of the NFL, only one (1952 Giants) finished above .500. The Broncos (6-5) could be the second, as well as the fifth team since 1990 to make the playoffs after a 0-3 start (the Vikings also could achieve that feat this season).
The Broncos are on pace to have the biggest in-season defensive turnaround in NFL history.
After allowing 36.2 points per game during their first five games — including a 70-20 loss to the Dolphins — the Broncos are allowing 16.5 points per game over their last six games. If they play at that pace over the final six games, the difference from the two stretches is 19.7 points per game.
The biggest differential in points allowed from the first five games through the rest of the season is currently 19.2 by the 1939 Cleveland Rams (who played 11 games total), according to NFL research. In this century, the 2013 Giants had an 18.1 points-per-game improvement from 36.4 to 18.3.
So, the one-season hook on Hackett to replace him with Payton is working out — but so is Payton hiring defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.