Welcome back to another breakdown of the PrizePicks board.
We have a Monday Night Football showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders to attack this week.
Jacobs has yet to top this projection in 2023 despite getting at least 17 rushing attempts in three of the Raiders’ first four games.
The slow start can likely be attributed to the running back’s contract dispute that forced him to miss the entire preseason.
Last season, Jacobs led the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards.
Tonight, his Raiders are a 2.5-point home favorite against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL.
The Packers have allowed more than 155 rushing yards per game this season.
Two of the games Green Bay has played include a blowout of the Chicago Bears and a narrow victory over the New Orleans Saints, who were without their top two running backs (Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams).
The Packers allowed David Montgomery and Bijan Robinson to rush for more than 100 yards in their other two games.
Additionally, top wideout Davante Adams is battling a shoulder injury and logged just one limited practice session this week. He’s officially listed as questionable.
Expect the Raiders to lean heavily on Jacobs tonight. I think he records more than the 74.5 rushing yards he’s listed at on PrizePicks.
Love has logged more than 238.5 passing yards in three of four weeks this season.
Tonight, he gets a matchup against a leaky Raiders secondary, and (arguably) his most talented weapon, Christian Watson, is another week removed from his preseason hamstring injury.
As 2.5-point underdogs in this matchup, the Packers could find themselves in a trailing game script.
The Packers have not been shy when it comes to Love letting it rip, and they’ve shown it both in the lead and trailing.
Love threw 44 times against the Atlanta Falcons in a close Week 2 loss in which Green Bay blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter.
He dropped back 36 times last week against the Detroit Lions in a game the Packers were trailing from the start.
There’s a solid chance the Packers find themselves behind again this week, and that should lead to significant passing volume for Love.
I think he surpasses his 238.5 passing-yards projection.
Watson cleared this projection in six of eight games to close out the 2022 season.
He was hobbled by a hamstring injury to begin this season, missing the first three games.
In his 2023 season debut last week against the Lions, he caught two of four targets for 25 yards and a touchdown.
He played on just 46% of snaps and earned just 11% of the targets. I expect both of those numbers to grow significantly this week as he gets healthier and becomes a bigger part of the offense.
Last season, Watson was the No. 1 target in the Packers offense. Over the last eight weeks of the season, he played on more than 80% of the snaps and earned a target share above 20%.
Watson should have a significant role in any game script now that he is fully healthy.