We are just four months away from the Chiefs and Lions kicking the season off on “Thursday Night Football” at Arrowhead Stadium. Let’s dive into a few notes, stats and trends to get you hyped for the upcoming 2023 season.
The Chiefs open up against the Lions to kick off the 2023 season. The Chiefs are 7-point favorites right now. The highest spread for an opener in the Bet Labs database goes to the Buccaneers in 2021 as 9.5-point favorites against the Cowboys and the Chiefs in 2020, also 9.5-point favorites against the Texans. Both teams won straight up.
The biggest upset in an opener was in 2017 when the Chiefs, as 8-point underdogs, beat Tom Brady and the Patriots in Foxboro, Mass. We’ll see if this Chiefs/Lions number climbs in the coming months.
The Jets open the season against the Bills as 3-point home underdogs
In Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers made 119 home starts at Lambeau Field, but only eight of those starts came as a home underdog (7 percent).
Rodgers is 6-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his career.
The International Series is out:
Week 4: Falcons-Jaguars, London
Week 5: Jaguars-Bills, London
Week 6: Ravens-Titans, London
Week 9: Dolphins-Chiefs, Frankfurt
Week 10: Colts-Patriots, Frankfurt
Let’s look at a few facts and trends from the 39 total international games:
Overs are an almost even 20-19. Where the value has been is at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where the over is 5-1.
Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 29-9-1 straight up and 25-14 against the spread.
The public has struggled a bit overseas. Teams with 51 percent or more of tickets in international games are just 18-20 ATS.
Since 2011-12 — the years Cam Newton and Andrew Luck were taken No. 1 overall — 17 QBs have been taken in the top five of the draft.
Not counting Bryce Young, CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson — the previous 14 QBs are 22 games under .500 ATS, losing a $100 bettor $4,496. Ten of the 14 QBs are .500 ATS or below in their career. The four QBs above .500 ATS are Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa.
Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 11-4 ATS in Week 1, the most profitable Week 1 coach in the Bet Labs database.
John Harbaugh with extra time to prepare:
10+ days: 24-8 SU, 18-12-2 ATS
Week 1: 11-4 SU/ATS
Patrick Mahomes and Rodgers are scheduled to face off for the first time in their careers in Week 4 on “Sunday Night Football” at MetLife Stadium.
If they both start, Mahomes (2 MVPs) and Rodgers (4 MVPs) would become the seventh different pair of quarterbacks to meet in a regular-season game after both players had won multiple NFL Most Valuable Player awards.