Good morning, and welcome back to another year of Ugly Underdogs.
For the uninitiated, here’s how this works. Every Saturday morning, we go dumpster diving to pick out our favorite massive underdog on the college football slate.
We’re talking the likes of UMass, Akron and New Mexico State, as they bring their slingshots to take on the goliaths of the gridiron.
This year’s first entry is the University of Nevada.
Set to take on No. 2 Penn State, the Wolf Pack are a whopping 42.5-point underdog (FanDuel) at Beaver Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Believe it or not, Nevada is the sixth-biggest underdog on Saturday’s slate, but the five other pooches are all FCS teams punching up a division (shoutout to LIU as they take on Florida in the Swamp).
While other blue-blood programs have opted to start their seasons with a baptism by fire, Penn State has opted to ease into things in what is expected to be a massive campaign in Happy Valley.
Led by quarterback Drew Allar, a potential top-5 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the Nittany Lions are not only the No. 2 team in the preseason AP Poll, but they are the third-favorite to win the national championship behind just Texas and Ohio State.
It may be unfair to say this is a trophy-or-bust season for James Franklin at Penn State, but if he does fail to land some hardware, his seat will get toasty, even if the Nittany Lions do have what looks like a good year on paper.
It’s almost certain that Penn State will start this pivotal season with a win (likely three wins, as they’ve got FIU and Villanova on deck before Oregon visits on Sept. 27), but covering a six-touchdown spread seems like a lofty goal in Week 1.
While Penn State’s offense jumped during Andy Kotelnicki’s first season, leading the country in plays of 10-plus yards, we can feel pretty confident that their game plan for this contest will skew toward running the ball.
Not only will they want to keep Allar’s jersey clean, but they’ll want the clock to move as soon as they safely get out in front of the Wolf Pack.
The Nittany Lions were middle of the pack in terms of seconds per play offensively in 2024, and they ranked 35th in the country in rush rate per game, so they’ve got no issue methodically moving their way through an afternoon.
As for Nevada, there’s not much to cling to here. The Wolf Pack did almost upset SMU and Boise State last year, and they beat Oregon State, but the second half of the season was a mess after a 3-4 start.
The offense, led by Brock Purdy’s kid brother, Chubba, could be efficient enough to get down the field, but they’ll be going up against one of the best defenses in the country — at least until the Nittany Lions begin resting players after they build a big enough lead.
The point is, we’re not asking the world of the other Purdy and the boys from Reno.
If they can get into the end zone once, we’ll have a great chance of getting to the window with our first ugly bet of the season.
BET: Nevada +42.5 (-115, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.