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
After a wild first day of the NCAA Tournament, here’s an intriguing South Region matchup on my betting card on Friday.
Nebraska has a half-decent matchup in the opening round.
The Cornhuskers should be able to create off-ball perimeter shots with Keisei Tominaga against Texas A&M’s under-screening defense, which allows a ton of 3s.
But the Cornhuskers are at a significant, possibly impossible-to-overcome disadvantage because the Aggies should dominate the boards.
Texas A&M is college basketball’s best offensive rebounding team, leading the nation in offensive rebounding rate (42 percent) and second-chance points (17).
And Nebraska has difficulty on the boards, ranking 223rd in defensive rebounding rate (70 percent) and 300th in percentage of points allowed on second-chance opportunities (16 percent).
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Texas A&M might struggle to create first-shot offense or defend Nebraska’s first-shot offense, but the Aggies will grab most of the 50/50 balls and score relentlessly by playing volleyball on the offensive boards.
At minimum, that gives Texas A&M a very consistent avenue to offense.
The Aggies also have a pretty significant athletic advantage.
They should be able to create plus isolation mismatches across the roster, especially with star point guard Wade Taylor IV and bully-ball wing Tyrece Radford.
The schematic matchup isn’t excellent, but the Aggies should dominate the extras, especially with their steady ball-handling (21st nationally in turnover rate) and foul-drawing ability(top-50 nationally in free throw rate).
Recommendation: Texas A&M +1.5.