In this century’s least surprising move, the San Antonio Spurs selected Victor Wembanyama with the first overall pick.
In response, Vegas oddsmakers and online sportsbooks set the market for the 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds.
And, in another unsurprising move, those oddsmakers have made Wembanyama an overwhelming favorite to be the Rookie of the Year.
But, despite his tremendous upside, I have serious doubts about Wembanyama’s immediate future.
I think the French phenom is wildly overvalued in this market.
But first, check out the full odds for this year’s ROY award, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
I’m out on Wembanyama as Rookie of the Year and believe he’s severely overvalued in this market.
Wembyanama is 7-foot-4, 235 lbs, with a monster wingspan and an uber-lanky frame.
He has a high center of gravity and may be pushed around by bigger NBA bodies.
Wembanyama is an injury risk.
Tall players are more injury prone. So are lanky players.
Wembanyama is both.
The situation reminds me of last year.
Chet Holmgren was the favorite to win the ROY award last season, but he suffered a season-ending injury before opening night.
Perhaps Wembanyama doesn’t miss the whole season, but any injury risk could severely hurt his chance of winning the award.
Remember, you need to play 65 games to qualify for the award in the first place.
Additionally, Gregg Popovich and the Spurs are a forward-thinking, smart organization.
They will not push Wembanyama’s currently injury-prone frame, especially when it’s unlikely the Spurs are a contender this season.
Wembanyama will get stronger and bigger, and I imagine he’ll eventually grow into his massive frame (think Kevin Durant or Kristaps Porzingis).
But that won’t come immediately, and I have little doubt the Spurs are happy to wait for the greatest prospect since LeBron James to develop into his prime.
Ultimately, I could see Wembanyama having a low-usage season, and history tells us that high usage wins ROY awards.
Per Brandon Anderson of The Action Network, “19 of the past 20 ROYs scored at least 15 PPG,” and 14 of the past 21 ROYs led all rookies in scoring.
So, which rookie will be high usage this season?
The answer is Scoot Henderson.
Henderson is an NBA-ready prospect that projects to start and produce for the Trail Blazers immediately.
If Wembanyama weren’t in this draft, Henderson could have been the top overall pick.
He’s an explosive athlete, a great playmaker and can score around the rim in many ways.
Damian Lillard should still get most of the shots, but Henderson will likely be the second-highest scorer.
Additionally, Henderson’s 6-foot-2 with a low center of gravity and great balance, so I don’t expect injuries to be a concern (and I imagine Portland doesn’t either).
Henderson will start many games, earn a lot of minutes and likely stuff the stat sheet.
And that’s how you win Rookie of the Year.
NBA Rookie of the Year – Scoot Henderson (+350)