With the NBA regular season coming to a close Sunday, there are just a few days left for the league’s biggest stars to make their final impressions for the myriad awards up for grabs this year.
Similarly, there’s a clock on bettors to extract the final value out of the individual player futures markets, as some books opt to close betting on awards once the season is over — especially those perceived as runaway contests.
So, with just three nights of regular-season basketball left, is there any value left in the awards market?
The most interesting race is clearly the one for NBA MVP, which has seen a half-dozen dramatic turns over the past few months.
The most recent one came Tuesday night, when 76ers star center Joel Embiid scored 52 points to cement himself as the prohibitive betting favorite (-1000) over two-time reigning winner Nikola Jokic (+1200) at BetMGM entering the final weekend.
Still, are we sure it’s this lopsided?
Embiid was dealing at just -210 on Tuesday morning before his epic performance, and Jokic was favored to win his third MVP trophy just one week ago.
Like everyone else, I think this is Embiid’s award to lose, but I wouldn’t be shocked if voters were swayed by Jokic’s immense value as measured by advanced metrics — just as they have been each of the past two seasons.
Things get even more compelling in the Defensive Player of the Year market, where Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr. (-150) is dealing as the clear favorite despite Brook Lopez (+120) looking like the more impactful defender for much of the season.
The Bucks rank second in defensive rating (110.5) thanks to his presence down low, and he ranks higher than Jackson in defensive win shares (4.0 to 3.7) with a nearly identical defensive rating (106.6 to 106.5) in over a dozen more games played.
As we’ve seen in recent years, that matters to voters.
I’m also riding with the plus-money underdog in the Sixth Man of the Year market, where Celtics guard Malcolm Brogdon (+250) was dealing as the favorite for much of the year before Immanuel Quickley (-350) came on strong over the past month.
The Knicks guard has been sensational as of late, and he’ll probably win this award on his scoring punch alone, but Brogdon has been the more meaningful bench player across the entire season and is getting slighted here.
Your guess is as good as mine for Most Improved Player of the Year.
Favorite Lauri Markannen (-275) fits the “new role, new player” mold that this award recognized for years, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+220) has taken his game from solid starter to superstar, similar to what we saw from Ja Morant a season ago.
I’ll probably stay away from this market entirely, but it’s worth noting that Jalen Brunson (+2500) — my preseason pick for this award — is criminally underrated after showcasing the best of both archetypes in his debut season with the Knicks.
Then there’s Rookie of the Year, which has been all but decided since Chet Holmgren fractured his right foot in a Pro-Am in August.
That swung the door wide open for No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero (-10000), who opened as a 2/1 favorite and never surrendered the top spot all season long.
Don’t waste your efforts here, this market has been wrapped up for months.