Veteran sports handicappers insist the only way to consistently beat the market is to focus on the specific situation, or “spot,” for a team.
Many feel that it has proven to be a successful method of forecasting an edge that will outperform mathematical projections. However, some view narratives as much more noise than substance.
I believe we have such a scenario in the WNBA on Tuesday, with the Washington Mystics visiting the Chicago Sky as a three-point road favorite with a total of 156.5.
Chicago is coming off an emotional win over the Connecticut Sun, snapping a three-game skid, all blowouts.
Plus, Angel Reese recorded her first career triple-double.
Meanwhile, Washington’s most recent game was an embarrassing 89-56 home loss to the Atlanta Dream. The Mystics mustered only 22 points in the second half and shot just 29.5 percent from the field in the game.
Given these scenarios, I believe the right approach is to back Washington to rebound and play with more focus and energy.
The Mystics are not an elite team, but they have demonstrated they are solid and could compete for a playoff spot. That’s enough to view them as reliable in this spot.
I also think this edge in talent, effort and determination is most pronounced in the first half.
I expect the Sky to start flat off the big win.
Plus, Washington has a much better bench, and that could shine in the second quarter, which is when reserves usually play.
I have a 51-41-1 ATS record in this Post sports section. My next wager is Washington laying one point on the first-half spread.
THE PLAY: Mystics 1H Spread -1 (DraftKings)
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.