Welcome back for another Wednesday PrizePicks article!
There are plenty of early afternoon games on the card, but we’ll look at some late afternoon and evening action to scratch the after-work itch and have some fun.
Let’s get started.
Lance Lynn has been downright awful against left-handed hitters this season.
He is striking out 34% of them (which is VERY good), but it seems that any time there’s wood on the ball, serious damage is happening.
Against lefties, Lynn is yielding a .304 ISO, 46% fly ball, and hard-contact rates with a pretty wild average hit distance.
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His FIP is about two full points higher vs. lefties, and he’s given up a good chunk of barrels this season.
I’m looking to attack Lynn with some lefties, but since PrizePicks isn’t currently offering my two favorite Kansas City hitters (Melendez and Vinnie P), we will roll with Pratto in this spot.
Right-handed fastballs are arguably his best pitch to hit, and he does own a 50% line-drive rate against RHP this season.
I like the idea of him grabbing one total base on Wednesday night.
We have a fantastic pitching matchup in Philadelphia later this afternoon.
Gausman had a few bumpy starts this season, but most of the others have been masterclass efforts.
Gausman is striking out 33% of hitters and owns an elite 2.33 xFIP this season.
The Phillies are projected to roll out just three hitters with strikeout rates better than 20%.
It could be a tough ask to get points for a win, as Philly ace Zack Wheeler is on the other side of things, but I do believe getting points for a quality start is well in play.
I’m backing Gausman to get the job done on Wednesday.
There are some household names in the Los Angeles lineup, but the matchup sets up quite well for Javier.
A knock on Javier is that he doesn’t typically go super deep into games, which puts quality-start points at risk.
However, I think there is serious strikeout upside in play on Wednesday.
The Angels are projected to roll out seven right-handed batters, while Javier owns a ridiculous 37% K rate against RHB since the beginning of 2022.
The Angels also just totally stunk up the joint against Framber Valdez last night, who was a much better matchup for them in terms of lefty/righty splits.
I usually don’t travel down this path, but I like this spot for Diaz against Dean Kremer.
Kremer strikes out just 15% of right-handed hitters, while Diaz owns an elite 13% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of 2022.
Kremer will throw mostly fastballs and cutters and Diaz shouldn’t have any issues handling them.
It’ll likely come down to late-game at-bats when Diaz takes on the Baltimore bullpen, which has been much better this season with the likes of Bryan Baker and Yennier Cano on the back end.