We’re back for another Wednesday of Major League Baseball action.
The month of April is winding down, but temperatures across the country are still pretty chilly.
Let’s take a look at three pitchers and a polar bear on the PrizePicks board.
Gilbert completely ditched his changeup for a new splitter this season, and he’s figured out how to put away right-handed hitters with it.
Not striking out righties was a significant pain point of his in the past.
This is an extremely fair number for Gilbert, whose scheduled Tuesday start was pushed back due to alleged muscle spasms.
They won’t send him out there on Wednesday if he’s not good to go.
But to be brutally honest, he may not need to be 100% against the Phillies, who are bottom third of the league in strikeouts per game.
Gilbert has struck out more than five batters in each start this season.
He was clocked at his highest velocity last start against Milwaukee, which bodes well for him to strike out more than six Phillies on Wednesday.
Check the weather report before making your own decision here, but it sounds like the game would be a late start if anything – rather than a mid-game stoppage.
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Elder has been a much-needed pleasant surprise for Atlanta.
This is a fantastic matchup against the Marlins, who were missing in action against Charlie Morton on Tuesday night.
Miami has a few individual bats, such as Jazz Chisholm, that have upside, but for the most part, the bottom of this lineup is typically clueless.
Dating back to 2022, Elder has struck out right-handed hitters at a higher clip (25%) than lefties (16%), which is good news for this matchup, as Miami doesn’t have many options to platoon against him.
The Marlins are projected to roll out seven right-handed batters, while five projected starters have strikeout rates north of 20%.
Elder has struck out more than five hitters in three of his four starts this season.
Another game at Wrigley where weather conditions could play a huge role in determining many outcomes.
Kevin Roth’s WeatherEdge tool currently indicates a massive -49% decrease in potential home runs and -17% decrease in pitching ERA (which is good for Wacha).
Winds look to be blowing in and it’s cold.
Although Wacha has been terrible during his last two outings, the conditions are too good to pass up on Wednesday night.
Wacha did record 18 innings in each of his first two outs earlier this month, so I’m willing to back him despite two bad outings in a row.
For what it’s worth, Derek Carty’s THE BAT projection system is penciling Wacha for 17.4 outs.
Former top prospect MacKenzie Gore hasn’t been bad this season, but he’s been far from perfect.
He’s been very good against RHB in a brief sample size this season, but terrible vs. lefties.
None of that matters to me when it comes to Alonso, who has historically dominated left-handed pitching across his career.
Pete owns a .271 ISO and a 44% fly-ball rate since the start of 2022 against LHP.
Gore throws mostly fastballs and yields very high line drive and hard-contact rates to both sides of the plate.
He’s also waking a ridiculous amount of hitters, so I’m confident Alonso will have at least one opportunity with a runner on in front of him.
His control problems have not gotten any better in 2023, which puts him in a very tough spot against a talented Mets lineup.