Baseball is finally here and I’m excited to share some of my favorite MLB analysis with you this season.
Let’s talk about an elite pitching matchup and a couple of bats in position to do damage.
Wednesday’s games are scattered throughout the day, so let’s dig into the later window to find some PrizePicks action.
Hunter Greene is excellent during the first time through the opposing batting order, but not so good afterward.
The first time through, Greene owns a stingy 2.66 FIP and an elite 40% strikeout rate, compared to the second time through, where his rates drop to a less-than-pedestrian 4.94 FIP and a (solid) 27% strikeout rate.
In fact, opponents are making just 25% hard contact first time through the order, which increases to 37% the second time through the batting lineup.
Weirdly enough, the Braves aren’t the best fastball-hitting team, and although there is a ton of raw power and barrels when hitters connect vs. him, Hunter’s stuff (mostly gas) is so darn good the first time, that the wheels don’t follow off until later in the game.
Across Greene’s 26 career starts, he’s yielded a first-inning run just five times.
Spencer Strider is on the opposite side.
He owns an absurd 42% K rate first time through the order and an elite 1.59 FIP.
That’s all I need to see.
Strider has started 23 games including the playoffs, throwing scoreless first innings in 21 of them.
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I’m big on Orioles bats Wednesday and Mouncastle is on a tear.
Additionally, he owns a .224 ISO vs. left-handed pitching since the beginning of 2022.
Opposing left-handed Ken Waldichuk has been brutal against RHB over the course of his MLB career.
Eleven of the 12 homers that he’s coughed up during his MLB tenure have come against RHB and he’s sporting a putrid .333 ISO, 47% hard-hit rate and 44% fly-ball rate to righties.
Better yet, he throws roughly 60% of fastballs to hitters.
Our ScoresAndOdds WeatherEdge Tool gives a 14% boost to potential home runs, so hitting conditions look to be above average in Baltimore.
I also really like Adley Rutschman in this same spot, so feel free to look into him for another great option.
I don’t care how far Camden Yards fences were moved back, it’s not far enough for some of these birds.
Gausman is a machine. He owns a 28% strikeout rate since the beginning of last season.
The Detroit projected lineup sports a 27% strikeout rate, which isn’t good.
I will say, the Tigers have been making more contact to start the season, but Gausman is an elite ace, which will be a much tougher task for them.
Gausman hasn’t cracked 90 pitches, but after a couple of very nice starts, I think he has the bandwidth for 95 tonight.
He landed on exactly seven strikeouts in each of his first two starts (against more formidable opponents) and I think we’ll see 8+ on Wednesday.
Chris Sale has given up four home runs and four barrels so far this season.
Franco is off to an excellent start as a post-hype prospect.
Righties have given Sale trouble during the time that he has actually pitched over the last year or so, yielding high line-drive and hard-contact rates, which puts the switch-hitting Franco in a good spot.
Franco has seven career at-bats (including one home run) against Sale and hasn’t struck out once.
Sale’s velocity took a nose dive last game and I’m very curious to see if he gets clunked again Wednesday.