Welcome back to another breakdown of the MLB PrizePicks board.

We have 15 baseball games on the schedule today, with the Braves and Phillies playing a doubleheader. Game 1 starts at 1:05 PM ET and will not be considered. 

Everything else starts at 6:35 PM ET or later this evening. 

Let’s dive right in and discuss some of my favorite projections to target when building out your PP cards. 

Crawford has been solid this season and rates out as roughly a league-average starting pitcher. He has posted a 4.10 SIERA, 24.1% strikeout rate, and 6.8% walk rate. 

Today, he gets a matchup with the Yankees who have been a slightly below-average offense this season (94 wRC+). They rank 18th in strikeout rate at 23.4%, so we have a pretty neutral strikeout matchup here.  

Crawford faced this Yankees offense about a month ago and posted an excellent start. He lasted 6 innings and allowed just one solo home run and 2 walks. Despite the really solid outing, he managed to rack up just 5 strikeouts. 

I think Crawford has a little more trouble with the Yankees this time around, and he should record less than 5.5 strikeouts. 

Luzardo has put together a great season for the Marlins with a 3.65 SIERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, and 7.0% walk rate. 

The reduction in his walk rate has allowed him to work deeper into games this year. 

He has recorded more than 5.5 strikeouts in 18 of his 28 starts this season, and now gets a matchup against Milwaukee. 

The Brewers have struck out at the sixth-highest rate (24.7%) in MLB against lefties this season. 

Their best hitter, Christian Yelich, has also been dealing with back issues again recently and has missed the last two games. We are not currently projecting him to be back in the lineup today. 

I like Luzardo to record more than 5.5 strikeouts today against the Brewers. 

Wicks has been impressive through his first three MLB starts for the Cubs. He has allowed just 4 runs in 16.2 innings to start his big league career. 

He posted a massive 9 strikeouts in his debut against the Pirates, but he recorded just 4 total strikeouts in his last two outings. 

The latter starts are more indicative of the starter Wicks currently is at this point in his career. He recorded just a 22.2% strikeout rate at Triple-A this season. 

Today, he goes into Coors Field for the first time in his career. Never an easy assignment for a young pitcher. 

The only reason this projection is so high is because the Rockies have struck out at the highest rate (26.6%) in baseball against lefties this season. 

However, it is worth noting that they have struck out at just 23.3% overall at home. The altitude and hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field make this a difficult spot for Wicks despite the Rockies struggles this season. 

I like him to record less than 4.5 strikeouts today. 

Gilbert has put together an excellent season for the Mariners. He owns a 3.67 SIERA, 25.4% strikeout rate, and an elite 4.5% walk rate. 

The elite walk rate allows him to pitch deep into games, as he has averaged nearly 6 innings per start this season. 

Today, he gets a matchup against a terrible Angels lineup that continues to scuffle in the absence of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. 

Every hitter in their projected lineup (with the exception of Kyren Paris) has struck out at a rate of at least 22.9% versus right-handed pitching this season. Paris struck out at a 29.4% rate in Double-A this season and I think we can expect some regression on the 20.7% strikeout rate he has posted through his first 29 MLB plate appearances. 

Gilbert should dominate this weak lineup and record more than 7.5 strikeouts.