Happy Friday! Welcome back for another breakdown of the MLB PrizePicks board.
We have another loaded Friday night slate with all 30 teams in action.
There is no afternoon baseball today as all 15 games get started at 6:40 ET or later.
We have plenty of options today, so let’s break down some of my favorite selections.
Darvish is putting together another successful season with a 3.69 SIERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and 7.0% walk rate.
Despite his success, he has recorded six or fewer strikeouts in 7 of his 11 starts this season.
He has also posted just an 11.1% swinging strike rate, which is one of the lowest of his career and suggests he has potentially been a little fortunate with his strikeout rate this season.
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Today, he has the difficult assignment of pitching in Coors Field.
The Rockies have been one of the worst offenses in baseball on the road, but they are significantly better at home thanks to their hitter-friendly home park.
In Coors Field, the Rockies have posted a .345 wOBA (compared to .286 wOBA on the road) and struck out just 20.9% of the time (versus 25.4% on the road).
The difficult environment in Coors Field should keep Darvish to less than 6 strikeouts today.
Ohtani is again racking up strikeouts at an impressive clip, with a 33.8% strikeout rate and 14.0% swinging strike rate this season.
The Angels have also extended his leash this year, as Ohtani is averaging over 100 pitches per start (excluding his rain-shortened outing in Boston).
He has racked up at least 8 strikeouts in 7 of his 11 starts this season (again, excluding the Boston start).
Today, he gets a matchup with the Seattle Mariners, who have struck out at a rate of 25.7% versus right-handed pitching this season (second highest in MLB).
They also rank below league average with a .302 wOBA and 92 wRC+ versus righties.
Ohtani should be able to pitch deep into this game and record more than 8 strikeouts.
Suarez has been hit around a bit this season, as he owns a 5.47 ERA through five starts.
Although he has been much better his last two times out, as he racked up 13.2 innings and allowed just 3 runs combined against the Nationals and Mets.
Both of those spots set-up well for him though since the Nats are a well below average offense and the Mets play in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball.
Despite pitching deep into both of those games, he failed to record more than 4 strikeouts in both starts, and he has failed to do so in four of his five starts this season.
His strikeout rate sits well below average at just 18.3% this year.
Today, Suarez gets his toughest test yet, as the Phillies welcome the Dodgers to town.
The Dodgers have posted a .348 wOBA and 120 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching this season that both rank fourth-best in the league.
They also strike out at just 22.1% versus lefties.
Suarez will have difficulty pitching deep into this game as he faces a patient, powerful Dodgers offense.
I like him to record less than 4 strikeouts in a difficult matchup.
Wells is in the middle of a breakout campaign.
He has recorded at least 7 strikeouts in five straight starts, and he has allowed more than 3 runs in just one of them.
His ERA is down to 3.29 for the season, and he has seen a huge jump in strikeouts from a year ago.
His strikeout rate is up to 26.6% after sitting at 18.0% in his first season as a big league starter last year.
Even if you are not completely sold on Wells’ breakout, there is plenty of reason to trust him today.
He gets a home matchup against a woeful Kansas City offense.
The Royals have struck out at the fifth-highest rate (24.9%) in the league versus right-handed pitching, and their wOBA (.288) and wRC+ (79) rank third worst.
Wells has averaged over 95 pitches per start and should be able to work deep into the game.
I like him to record more than 6 strikeouts in this excellent matchup.